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| Author |
Message |
| 7 new of 81 responses total. |
russ
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response 75 of 81:
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Jun 22 16:07 UTC 2002 |
Re #71: If world oil production peaks in 2004, we can expect gasoline
prices to start rising very quickly until they hit the cost of oil from
tar sands.
I said it before and I'll say it again: We could easily double the
efficiency of most of our processes which use oil and substitute many
of the rest, and that would be a better way to damage the "global
terrorism network" than what we're doing now.
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gull
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response 76 of 81:
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Jun 22 16:32 UTC 2002 |
Oil production will peak eventually, but I'm skeptical it'll be in 2004.
There were people predicting it'd peak in the 70's. The truth is no one
knows, but there's a certain amount of political hay to be made in
predicting it'll happen in the near future.
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drew
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response 77 of 81:
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Jun 24 03:13 UTC 2002 |
I think a better way to damage the terror network, in the long run, would be
to drain them dry while keeping *our* oil in the ground.
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gull
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response 78 of 81:
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Jun 24 12:56 UTC 2002 |
That's only effective until we start fighting other people over the oil
they've got. Oh, wait a minute... ;)
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russ
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response 79 of 81:
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Jun 24 21:17 UTC 2002 |
Re #76: I hear it takes about ten years to bring an oil field from
discovery into full production, and I've not heard about any huge finds
coming on-line soon. There's an undersea field between East Timor and
Australia, but politics may hold that one up. The Caspian region is
supposed to be very big but politics and infrastructure are both big
obstacles, and starting now would bring it on-line around 2012. That's
too late to avoid a surge in prices. The market for SUVs would
collapse (I can hope) and Canada would make a bundle on tar sands.
It would also be great for OPEC, being able to get more money while
pumping less oil. My opinion is that what's good for OPEC is bad for
the world; we really need to get rid of SUVs now. (We should have
gotten rid of them a decade ago, by repealing the looser pollution
controls they were allowed and forcing all vehicles sold for personal
use to meet CAFE requirements, but it's too late for that.)
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gull
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response 80 of 81:
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Jun 25 13:07 UTC 2002 |
I don't disagree with anything except your date. I'm skeptical because I
still remember all the books and such that claimed we'd run out of oil
completely in the 80s.
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russ
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response 81 of 81:
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Jun 26 02:45 UTC 2002 |
Re #80: All of the crisis dates you're talking about, were, if I'm
not misinformed, due to faulty methodology: people divided proven
reserves by consumption and came up with a "time until empty", not
having a clue that proven reserves means fields located and tested
and that exploration and drilling create new reserves.
Things are different now. New discoveries are tougher and tougher
to find (we're now exploring the post-SSR dictatorships of central
Asia, one of the few places on earth left to exploit), and while
recoverable amounts increase with the price it does mean that the
price has to go up.
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