response 6 of 55:

Oct 9 15:39 UTC 2007

The Motorola 6412?  It's among the better solutions currently available
although it has major issues; the software is notoriously buggy, the
capacity is woefully inadequate and cannot be upgraded, and it won't
work for certain types of content (like OnDemand, which is also pathetic
but for different reasons.)  It's also hard to skip commercials with it
(done on purpose) and the options for configuring recording are kinda
lame.  The only way to get content off it onto another storage medium is
Firewire and it's so irritating as to be barely usable and won't work
for protected content.

All of these problems could be solved by an open architecture and open
source software, but of course that can't be allowed.

response 8 of 55:

Oct 9 18:07 UTC 2007

Re resp:5: You don't have difficulty as long as you accept the cable
company's lock-in.  If you want to use someone else's DVR, you're out of
luck.

response 10 of 55:

Oct 12 19:53 UTC 2007

 Another way to read that is:

   Universal Music executive believes Universal Music should get
   $90 per MP3 playback device sold.

 Actually, I'd probably be glad to pay $5 / month for an all-you-
 can-eat music service with decent selection.  But players that
 cost ~50% more in the store shelf are going to be at a substantial
 competitive disadvantage.

response 12 of 55:

Oct 12 22:55 UTC 2007

Would the device then self-disable after 18 months, becoming an
expensive paperweight?  I keep my MP3 players a lot longer than a year
and a half.

response 14 of 55:

Nov 7 00:56 UTC 2007

Three reports -- one financial analyst and two bloggy anecdotes -- 
which suggest that it's just about Game Over for the big recorded 
music companies.

#1)  Bob Lefsetz reports on a recent investment analysis report on 
     Warner Music from Pali Research.  Lefsetz quotes from the report:

> No matter how many people the RIAA sues, no matter how many times 
> music executives. point to the growth of digital music, we believe an 
> increasing majority of worldwide consumers SIMPLY VIEW RECORDED MUSIC 
> AS 'FREE'.  ((emphasis KRJ))
> A new model for music consumption must emerge and that model 
> most likely involves DRM-free downloadable music at no cost to consumers, 
> fully-supported by advertising (within some form of social networking 
> environment that enables consumers to discover/explore music). 
> The music industry is not ready to endorse such a move at this point 
> and even if it was, the economic model transition will be incredibly 
> painful.

...

> Artists make the vast majority of their money on touring and 
> merchandise, not CDs. In turn, it is increasingly logical to believe 
> that artists want to have their music reach the widest possible 
> audience at the lowest possible price.meaning FREE. Yet that puts 
> the music labels in a very difficult position as their recorded music 
> divisions make virtually all their money off of the sale of music. 
> Music labels need to get significantly smaller as the industry shrinks...

The recommendation is to sell Warner Music stock.

http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/index.php/archives/2007/11/02/the-greenfield-r
eport/

The full Pali Research report is available behind a free registration wall.

-----

#2)  Bloggy report from one Jason Mendelson, who comes back to 
     U. Michigan annually as a guest lecturer in economics.
     
     Mendelson reports on his unscientific poll of about 300 UMich
     students:

> 4.  I asked how many of them "bought music legally".  
>     No more that 15-20% indicated that they bought music legally.
> 5.  I asked how many of them "stole music". 100%.  
>     And all but a couple indicated that a majority of their 
>     music was stolen.
> 6.  Biggest concern of stealing music was not getting caught, 
>     it was that they "felt badly" for stealing it.
> 7.  Almost no one buys CDs, but those that do are all into classic rock 
>     and jazz (Led Zeppelin, Lynyrd Skynyrd, AC/DC). ...

http://www.feld.com/blog/archives/2007/10/undergraduate_v.html

-----

#3)  And finally:  Andrew Dubber reports from a UK music trade 
     industry panel, where six teenaged girls were invited to 
     discuss their consumption patterns in a market research inquiry. 

What really frightened the music biz people was not that the girls
download music for free:   they download for free, listen for a while,
and then throw the copies away.  Recorded Music, for this unscientific 
sample of young people, has become completely disposable.  How can the 
record biz hope to charge much money when the product has the lifespan of 
newspaper?

But my point here was that one member of the old-line music industry
tried to put the fear of God and Lawsuits into the girls:

> "So, let's say one of your friends is caught downloading music. 
> And let's say they and their parents go to court. And they're found 
> guilty of breaking the law (which is what you're doing). And they have 
> to pay thousands and thousands of pounds, and so they have to sell 
> house. And they lose everything. Everything. They're poor, and they're 
> miserable. Would that make you act differently and pay for music?"

> Translation: if we're really big and scary, sue everyone, make 
> examples of your friends and ruin people's lives, will you then finally 
> behave in the way we want you to?

...

> Their response was interesting: THEY LAUGHED AT HIM. Honestly. They laughed.
   (( emphasis krj ))

http://newmusicstrategies.com/2007/11/03/hooray-for-the-music-biz/ 

(I recommend this blog for those interested in following the Music Wars.)

response 16 of 55:

Nov 7 16:11 UTC 2007

re resp:14: Haven't teenagers been buying music, listening for a while,
and then throwing it away (or storing it away and not paying attention
to it for a long time) for decades?  If they were listening to last
year's music, they wouldn't be buying new music.

I see no reason why this would be expected to change just because they
are downloading it for free.  Maybe the music is a little more
disposable when they're not buying CDs for $18 each.  If this
"frightened" music execs, then I'd say they're not too well balanced.  I
would guess it couldn't have surprised any of them, even by the
slightest amount.

response 18 of 55:

Nov 7 20:58 UTC 2007

The sad thing is, the record labels could have avoided reaching this
point if they'd bought into the idea of inexpensive online distribution
to begin with.

When music was only legally available on CD, I often illegally
downloaded it because it was so much more convenient.  Now that I can
buy music a la carte online for about a buck a track from iTunes or
Amazon, I find that much more convenient than trying to find good tracks
on the illegal file sharing systems, so I get it legally.  I suspect I'm
not the only one who has followed this pattern.

response 20 of 55:

Nov 7 21:07 UTC 2007

My guess is you'd have to show that you'd made some minimal effort to
secure the system, besides putting up a disclaimer.  But I'm not up on
current case law on that issue.  I know there was a case recently where
someone faced charges for accessing an open wireless network without
authorization, but I didn't hear how it came out.

response 22 of 55:

Nov 8 02:06 UTC 2007

 re #19, 21:  That's already been the subject of arguments in some of
 the file-sharing lawsuits.  The record companies have attempted to
 claim that "making available" amounts to punishable behavior.
 The last I knew the issue was still strongly disputed and at least
 some of the courts in which the issue have been raised have been
 unsympathetic to that type of claim but as far as I am aware the
 issue is not settled one way or the other.  Which probably suits
 the record companies for the time being, as it's the *fear* that you
 might be sued, rather than the actual lawsuits themselves, that they
 count on to keep people in line.

response 24 of 55:

Nov 12 04:24 UTC 2007

If you keep posting this many short and relatively meaningless things I am
going to stop reading your posts.  Please think before you post.  I am not
trying to be mean, just letting you know the effect that it has when you post
one line in every item but don't really have a lot to say.  It takes a lot
longer to go through agora.

response 26 of 55:

Nov 12 20:48 UTC 2007

tl;dr

response 28 of 55:

Dec 3 17:59 UTC 2007

Here comes the Grinch with more Christmas Shopping Cheer!!  

"http://www.reuters.com/article/musicNews/idUSN0132742320071201?sp=true

It's Billboard's coverage of album sales for the week including Black
Friday, the unofficial start to the holiday gift-shopping season.

>> " Merchants reported a comparable-store music sales decline
>> ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent for the weekend that begins 
>> with Black Friday, although they said robust movie and videogame
>> sales helped soften the blow.

>> "Nielsen SoundScan data backs up those merchants' reports. Album
>> sales totaled 13.9 million during the week ended November 25, an 
>> 18 percent decline from the 17 million sold last year during the
>> Thanksgiving weekend." << ENDQUOTE

One number leaps out as especially dire, reflecting the collapse of 
Tower Records plus sizable closures of other chain retailers such as
Virgin Megastore and Transworld/FYE: 

>> "By store type, album sales at chains (including merchants
like Trans World, Best Buy and Barnes & Noble) were down *** 40 ***
percent, indies were down 22.6 percent, and mass merchants were down 6
percent. However, nontraditional outlets were up 17.7 percent." <<

   (Nontraditional merchants are dominated by Amazon;
    Starbucks is also lumped in here.)

Most retailers are blaming a lack of new hit releases.  (Why are there
no new hit releases?)   Wal-Mart did very well with their exclusives
on the Eagles and Garth Brooks.

One small music retailer in Wisconsin said DVD sales were skyrocketing.
>> "At the 10-unit Exclusive Co. in Oshkosh, Wis., for example,
>> general manager Stephanie Huff reported that DVDs were up 216 
>> percent Thanksgiving week. TV shows drove the DVD surge, 
>> she added."

-----

Note that the Nielsen Soundscan number for album sales (digital tracks
sold in an album bunch, and physical CDs) was down 14% Year-To-Date
leading up the Thanksgiving.  To have that number suddenly accelerate
to 18% (week to same week year ago) for the week indicates that there
is no hope of any improvement in sales for holiday season 2007.
I expect physical retailers to go forward with their worst-case
plans for reducing their CD-selling operations in early 2008.  This is
likely to be 30% floorspace reductions and more at the mass merchants
-- how much space does Wal-Mart need to sell its two hit artists? --
and many indie stores will just surrender as lease renewal 
comes around, as they contemplate business prospects over the next
several years.

response 30 of 55:

Dec 3 18:48 UTC 2007

My old homey..
December 3, 2007

BY GRETA GUEST
FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER

Record Time in Ferndale will wind down operations after the holidays with a
clearance sale before its owner consolidates operations at his flagship
Roseville store.

The Roseville store opened in 1983, with Ferndale following in 2000. Owner
Mike Himes said his business will focus on the Roseville and eBay stores,
Amazon.com and his e-commerce site.

"We have lasted longer than anyone else has, so we must be doing something
right," Himes said. "I love the vibe here in Ferndale. There just aren't
enough people coming in." 
Ferndale's main shopping area on Nine Mile has declined along with Michigan's
economy. Empty storefronts are becoming more common, particularly since the
Old Navy store at Woodward and Nine Mile closed in the summer. 

But news of the impending closure of another independent music store feels
like Harmony House all over again. Harmony House went out of business in 2002.

"It's kind of a sad thing," said Jonny Victor, 32, who was shopping at Record
Time in Ferndale last week. "I much prefer to shop at an independent music
store. I like to get the actual CDs instead of downloading them." 

The Farmington Hills resident said he had been going to a music store in Novi
until it closed. Then he found Record Time.

A trend winds down

About 1,200 independent music stores have closed since January 2003, said Joel
Oberstein, president of Studio City, Calif.-based Almighty Institute of Music
Retail, which offers marketing and other services to independent record
stores. 

There are still about 2,500 left, Oberstein said. In Michigan, 42 independent
music stores have closed, leaving 63 stores, according to the institute's
figures.

Harmony House closed its remaining 20 stores in 2002. The local chain was
founded in 1947, but the mix of competition from Internet downloads and
mass-market retailers did it in. The chain had 38 stores at its peak in 1999.

"What you are finding now is there is a survival of the fittest mentality in
many of the stores," Oberstein said.

The stores that make it amid double-digit percentage declines in CD sales and
other economic pressures are the ones that diversify by selling other items
in the store, such as T-shirts, and selling online, Oberstein said. 

"You have to do a little bit of everything, I guess," said Mike Rome, co-owner
of Street Corner Music in Beverly Hills.

Putting items online

Rome said he sells records and 45s on eBay and puts CDs that don't sell in
the store on Amazon.

Himes said he expects to start the clearance sale Dec. 29, and it will
continue until he can sublet the 4,400-square-foot store to another business.
He's hoping to close in February.

Sales at the Ferndale store are down 10% to 30% most weeks, Himes said, while
the Roseville store has been holding its own.

"We sell music physically. The east side, being more blue-collar, is less
affected by techology. The west side is more affected by technology and the
iPod age," Himes said. "It feels like I'm selling typewriters or pay phones;
you don't see those anymore." 

Himes also feels frustrated by an industry where all the marketing dollars
are moving toward the digital delivery of music.

Also, exclusive content is first going to venues like iTunes, and the
independents can't get it for 60 days. Big box retailers are also getting
exclusives the little guys can't.

"We're looked at as a last stop, even though we are the people who get bands
started," Himes said. "They say they appreciate what we do, but sometimes
we've got to wonder."

Himes said he will let go about five employees in Ferndale when he transfers
all operations to Roseville.

He has 15 employees at the 9,000-square-foot Roseville store on Gratiot near
I-696.

"We are leaving Ferndale, but we want to make Roseville bigger and better,"
Himes said.