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Grex > Music3 > #41: The Crash in the Music Business |  |
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| 25 new of 71 responses total. |
keesan
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response 40 of 71:
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Oct 5 22:13 UTC 2001 |
When I was in elementary school, the student with the highest grades had to
sing the national anthem at graduation. They made an exception for me because
the high notes were impossible. They could have at least picked something
easier to sing.
Any reason we could not change the national anthem every year?
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bdh3
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response 41 of 71:
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Oct 6 06:35 UTC 2001 |
re#40: At first I thought what a dumb question. And then as I believe
the only truely dumb question is the one that is never even though of
much less asked... The US could change the national anthem every year,
and maybe someday it will (in my opinion twood be a bad sign). But one
could dismiss the question, 'yeah, next thing you know we change the
flag every year'.
Fact is, while we don't do it every year the last time we changed the US
flag was as recent as 1959 - not that long ago and it has gone through
many many changes over the course of our nation's history. But on the
other hand it is the same flag - same design, same concept so I guess
its the same flag. (If you look at the 1813 US Flag you would recognize
it - the flag that inspired 'our national anthem' -sung to the tune of a
popular british drinking song...and written during the 'War of 1812')
(We all know the proper lyrics to the brit's national anthem, "My
country tis of thee, Sweet land of Liberty...." written much earlier.)
I guess the answer is, "Because that would not be proper". And yet,
what kind of an answer is that? What is a 'national anthem'? An
enduring musical symbol of the nation. Well, then we can't change it
every year. Yet, until 1916 when Woodrow Wilson ordered that it be the
'national anthem' played by the military and naval services we did
without an official one for 126 years - and since it wasn't written
until 1814 we'd done without it specifically for 24 years (or longer
depending on if you think the USA was founded in 1776 or 1790). (One
could suggest that the 1931 Congressional Act of 3/3/1931 officially
designating by act of congress a fact that had previously been ordered
'by executive order' was simply 'the commies have a cool national song,
we should have one too' while at the same time making a point in the
struggle between the executive and legislative branches.) It should be
noted that the third 'verse' of our now 'National Anthem' was not sung
by the time it became the 'official' - so we do change it, although not
every year.
My own opinion is that as the pace of cultural changes due to technology
increased there was a social need for 'constant enduring symbols' sort
of as an 'anchor' or 'security blanket' ((C)Shultz). We socially need
cultural ikons. One should note that the first thing the successor
nation to the USSR did was to revert to the old Czar's colors (without
the royal crest), and the second was the choose a new 'national anthem'.
And just recently they reverted to the old 'soviet' anthem, but with new
lyrics.
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drew
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response 42 of 71:
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Oct 7 18:24 UTC 2001 |
I'll enter a separate item for discussion of direct versus representative
voting.
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krj
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response 43 of 71:
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Oct 18 19:06 UTC 2001 |
This item didn't really go where I was hoping it would; we already
had the Napster item.
One particular meltdown I've been watching is the sales of Mariah
Carey. Virgin/EMI lured her away from Columbia/Sony with a deal worth
between 80 and 100 million dollars for four albums. However,
the sales of her new album GLITTER have not been impressive at
all. The album debuted at #7 with first week sales of about 116,000
copies; this was roughly one-third of what her last album sold
in its debut week. The album has steadily marched down the charts.
As of today it's at #34, with total sales of about a million.
Admittedly this includes the month following the attacks, but
even in comparison to other CD sales right now, this is an
incredibly bad performance, given what EMI invested in her.
(A million CDs sold would be a fine figure if the label hadn't
invested around 100 times that in the artist...)
(For comparison, the soundtrack to "O Brother Where Art Thou,"
which cost next to nothing up front, is at #19 on the chart.)
EMI chief Ken Berry has been sacked, though the Mariah deal
was probably only part of his problems; he failed twice to get the
company merged with another label. There's a published rumor
today (http://www.newmediamusic.com) that EMI is looking to
extract itself from its contract with Mariah.
I suspect -- haven't done the research -- that the multimillion dollar
advance deals given to superstars have almost always failed for the
labels. I shouldn't just pick on Mariah here: I very much doubt that
REM's megadeal paid off for Warner.
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mcnally
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response 44 of 71:
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Oct 18 19:52 UTC 2001 |
We've heard for years that multi-million dollar deals for mega-stars
have been killing the balance sheets of the big record companies --
I think the first time I heard a similar story the album in question
was Michael Jackson's follow-up to "Thriller". So why do the record
companies keep making them and if the deas are such financial poison
why aren't the companies making them being eaten alive by competitors
who aren't making the same mistakes?
Also, in what universe could it *ever* have appeared to be a good
idea to spend $80M for four Mariah Carey albums? Even if you assume
you can make back $4 for every CD you sell, that still means that
the four albums are each going to have to sell an average of five
million copies apiece. I can't think of *ANY* acts whose popularity
I'd care to guarantee over the course of four yet-to-be-recorded albums.
With typical album release schedules that's a timespan of four to ten
years in a remarkably fickle industry.
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krj
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response 45 of 71:
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Oct 18 20:42 UTC 2001 |
I think the answer to the first part of Mike's resp:44 is ::
there are only five major record companies, and they are all making
the same mistake of wildly overpaying for yesterday's top talent.
Entry to the oligopoly has proven impossible for anyone for at least
25 years, though the Zomba label is making a good run at it.
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senna
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response 46 of 71:
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Oct 18 21:57 UTC 2001 |
I thought the REM deal was bad when it was made. It's the number of albums
expected to succeed that's the problem. Almost nobody produces an album any
faster than two or three years a pop anymore, if they're successful. That's
a span of 8-10 years that the albums in such a deal fall over, an eternity
in the music business. No artists produce that many hit albums in a row
anymore, particularly not after already having had enough hits to engender
such a contract.
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keesan
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response 47 of 71:
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Oct 19 00:54 UTC 2001 |
What are the five major companies and how many minor ones are there?
(roughly, or do you count anyone with a CD burner)
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krj
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response 48 of 71:
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Oct 19 02:55 UTC 2001 |
The five major companies, roughly in order of size:
Vivendi Universal (formed by Seagram's (the liquor company) merging
Polygram and MCA, then becoming
acquired by a French conglomerate)
AOL Time Warner
Sony (main US brand is Columbia)
EMI
BMG (Bertelsmann Music Group, which bought out RCA
years ago.)
Those five companies are generally believed to control 85% of
the recorded music market; that number keeps shrinking every time
I see the figure reported over the last decade.
EMI tried to merge with both AOL Time Warner and BMG, and IIRC
anti-trust regulators shot down both deals because they were not willing
to see the number of large music companies decline to 4.
The only large independents I can think of off the top of my head are
Zomba and Palm Pictures. The small independents might be uncountable.
I'm talking about real businesses selling manufactured CDs, not
"anyone with a CD burner." Maybe we could find a membership count
from a trade association for indie labels -- was that NAIRD?
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krj
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response 49 of 71:
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Oct 19 03:27 UTC 2001 |
After a little Google search: NAIRD renamed itself as AFIM, the
Association For Independent Music, and their online directory
lists 531 members, not all of which are record companies.
It looks like the list is almost all North American.
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gelinas
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response 50 of 71:
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Oct 19 04:45 UTC 2001 |
A long time ago, in the days of primarily singles, my father pointed out that
less than half of the songs of even a top artist were hits: the B side was
almost always a write-off.
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polygon
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response 51 of 71:
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Oct 19 20:04 UTC 2001 |
Re 50. Or *designed* to be a write-off. Does anyone remember "You Know My
Name, Look Up The Number"? I have heard it twice ever, once in high school,
and again on a very peculiar radio show, which described it as "one of the
more *obscure* songs by the Beatles."
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mcnally
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response 52 of 71:
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Oct 19 20:57 UTC 2001 |
Yes, "You Know My Name (Look Up the Number)" (available on one of the
"Past Masters" singles CDs, though I can't recall which one) is pretty
bizarre and atypical for a Beatles song, though it's not the only oddity
they ever produced just to fulfill the need to have a song to put on
a B-side or fulfill some contractual requirement. In fact, they even
wrote a song just about this phenomenon and released it (along with a
couple of other distinctly second-rate efforts) on the "Yellow Submarine"
soundtrack. It's called "Only a Northern Song" and Harrison's lyrics
are pretty blunt about the subject:
If you're listening to this song
You may think the chords are going wrong
But they're not..
We just wrote it like that.
It doesn't really matter what chords I play
What words I say
Or time of day it is
As it's only a Northern song
It doesn't really matter what clothes I wear
Or how I fare
Or if my hair is brown..
When it's only a Northern song.
When you're listening late at night
You may think the band are not quite right
But they are, they just play it like that
It doesn't really matter what chords I play
What words I say or time of day it is
As it's only a Northern song.
It doesn't really matter what clothes I wear
Or how I fare
Or if my hair is brown..
When it's only a Northern song.
If you think the harmony
Is a little dark and out of key
You're correct, there's nobody there.
It doesn't really matter what chords I play
What words I say or time of day it is
And I told you there's no one there.
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mcnally
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response 53 of 71:
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Oct 19 21:07 UTC 2001 |
But I digress.. Getting back to the subject at hand, how is it that
the big-five record companies can make umpteen-million dollar mistakes
time and time again, pass the costs along to their consumers, and still
not get dismembered by their competition. Is there any sensible way to
account for this without concluding that some pretty serious anti-
competitive collusion is keeping new players from threatening the
entrenched powers?
Even with only five major players (and a small army of smaller labels
that are essentially vassals of whichever large conglomerate controls
their distribution) doesn't it seem like a company which sinks $80-100M
into a "sure thing" like Mariah Carey and then can't get it back should
really be hurting compared to a company willing to invest that same $80M+
into developing and promoting 50 relative unknowns in the expectation
that maybe one or two of them can be developed into Mariah-level sellers?
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scott
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response 54 of 71:
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Oct 19 22:37 UTC 2001 |
What, me? No, I'm not going to dispute that, Mike. It sure seems like there
ought to be competition eating their lunch.
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krj
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response 55 of 71:
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Oct 21 19:16 UTC 2001 |
Sunday's New York Times has a large piece on the
difficulties facing the classical music CD business. The article
starts with Tower Records' decision in May to stop ordering from the
major independent classical distributors -- the article does say
that Tower and the distributors have recently come to an agreement.
But with Tower failing in its traditional role as the leading
retailer of serious classical music, and with the major labels abandoning
the field, the article is skeptical about the survival of the business
of manufacturing and distributing physical discs. One person quoted
in the article brings up the point that David Bratman and I had made
earlier: browsing for classical music doesn't work in the online
CD stores like Amazon.com, and most of the serious classical collectors
seem to be dedicated browsers.
The article suggests that, like it or not, the classical music business
will rapidly be forced to pure digital distribution, and everybody
better get the bigger bandwidth needed to download larger works at
higher fidelity.
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/21/arts/music/21TOMM.html
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krj
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response 56 of 71:
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Oct 22 16:48 UTC 2001 |
The classical CD sales crash again, this one from an online magazine:
http://www.classicstoday.com/features/f2_1001.asp
"The Death of Deep Catalog"
The argument is that the small classical labels have poured out vastly
more CDs than the retailers or the market could absorb. The retailers
have mostly responded by dropping classical music. The article says
that even Amazon has backed away from trying to stock a comprehensive
catalog.
Quote:
> As the flood of new releases and reissues continues
> unabated, labels and distributors seem
> unwilling to acknowledge that the death of the
> deep catalog store, largely a product of their
> own stupidity in flooding the market with rafts
> of discs that no one wants, has thrust onto them
> a new responsibility: that of dealing with the public
> directly in place of retailers who can't or
> won't any longer. The ability of chain stores to
> suck up new releases and let them sit around in
> the bins practically forever has, up to now,
> insulated producers and distributors from the
> uncomfortable reality that the audience for their
> productions might be vanishing, small, or even
> nonexistent...
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dbratman
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response 57 of 71:
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Oct 22 22:01 UTC 2001 |
The reason the majors can pour out millions for overpriced artists and
not get eaten by the competition is that it's a good short-term
strategy, and all the competition in the same league is doing the same
thing.
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scott
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response 58 of 71:
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Oct 23 00:24 UTC 2001 |
I'm trying to remember if those megadeals actually count a lot of money
earmarked for promotion and such. Would certainly make more sense that way,
as a business decision.
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mcnally
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response 59 of 71:
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Oct 23 01:00 UTC 2001 |
I'm sure that whatever counting scheme they use would be unrecognizable
to most of us, but it's still got to be impossible to make some of those
deals pay no matter what sort of accounting tricks you engage in..
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krj
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response 60 of 71:
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Oct 25 04:34 UTC 2001 |
Still more classical bad news. This is from http://www.gramophone.co.uk,
which appears to be only operational with MSIE.
Nimbus Records, a leading British classical label and UK distributor,
has gone into receivership. In the article, they say that they had
been struggling for a while, but the collapse of business in the US
after September 11 made it impossible to continue.
The article says that another British classical distributor has closed
recently, and yet another closure is imminent.
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goose
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response 61 of 71:
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Oct 26 15:05 UTC 2001 |
I wonder if they're connected with Nimbus the CD manufacturer and mastering
house?
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krj
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response 62 of 71:
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Nov 2 00:43 UTC 2001 |
Usenet reports indicated that the Nimbus record label sold off
the CD manufacturing operation some time earlier.
Copied from resp:music3,4,56 ::
The venerable Canadian firm Sam the Record Man, once the largest
music retailer in Canada, has filed for bankruptcy.
My obituary for the store is in the Music conference, in
the CD Store Obituary item -- I mean, the Music Retail item. :(
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krj
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response 63 of 71:
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Dec 20 02:26 UTC 2001 |
Matt Drudge pointed to this item from the Sacramento Bee:
http://www.sacbee.com/state_wire/story/1348770p-1418333c.html
A number of big-time musicians are organizing a series of concerts
to raise money for a legal battle over their claim that the
record companies systematically underpay royalties and generally
cheat the artists. Participating musicians include
Elton John, No Doubt, the Eagles, Billy Joel, Sheryl Crow, Stevie Nicks,
Offspring, and Weezer, plus unnamed R&B and country performers.
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krj
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response 64 of 71:
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Dec 27 05:27 UTC 2001 |
LA Times story: the record biz is reeling from big dollar contracts
given to big name stars whose sales have plummeted. Our sample
artists are Mariah Carey, REM and Macy Gray.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000102156dec26.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines
%2Dbusiness%2Dmanual
(sorry about the wrap)
"Labels Singing The Blues Over Expensive Failures"
quote:
> The Carey deal has turned out so badly that EMI music chief
> Alain Levy, hired after the album was released, has initiated an
> unusual attempt to cut the company's losses. Representatives for
> EMI and Carey declined to comment. But several sources close to the
> talks say EMI is pushing for a settlement with Carey under which
> the singer would receive a multimillion-dollar lump sum in exchange
> for agreeing to exit EMI's Virgin Records label.
>
> "The cost of doing business is out of control," said one label chief
> who spoke on condition of anonymity. ...
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