response 16 of 55:

Nov 7 16:11 UTC 2007

re resp:14: Haven't teenagers been buying music, listening for a while,
and then throwing it away (or storing it away and not paying attention
to it for a long time) for decades?  If they were listening to last
year's music, they wouldn't be buying new music.

I see no reason why this would be expected to change just because they
are downloading it for free.  Maybe the music is a little more
disposable when they're not buying CDs for $18 each.  If this
"frightened" music execs, then I'd say they're not too well balanced.  I
would guess it couldn't have surprised any of them, even by the
slightest amount.

response 18 of 55:

Nov 7 20:58 UTC 2007

The sad thing is, the record labels could have avoided reaching this
point if they'd bought into the idea of inexpensive online distribution
to begin with.

When music was only legally available on CD, I often illegally
downloaded it because it was so much more convenient.  Now that I can
buy music a la carte online for about a buck a track from iTunes or
Amazon, I find that much more convenient than trying to find good tracks
on the illegal file sharing systems, so I get it legally.  I suspect I'm
not the only one who has followed this pattern.

response 20 of 55:

Nov 7 21:07 UTC 2007

My guess is you'd have to show that you'd made some minimal effort to
secure the system, besides putting up a disclaimer.  But I'm not up on
current case law on that issue.  I know there was a case recently where
someone faced charges for accessing an open wireless network without
authorization, but I didn't hear how it came out.

response 22 of 55:

Nov 8 02:06 UTC 2007

 re #19, 21:  That's already been the subject of arguments in some of
 the file-sharing lawsuits.  The record companies have attempted to
 claim that "making available" amounts to punishable behavior.
 The last I knew the issue was still strongly disputed and at least
 some of the courts in which the issue have been raised have been
 unsympathetic to that type of claim but as far as I am aware the
 issue is not settled one way or the other.  Which probably suits
 the record companies for the time being, as it's the *fear* that you
 might be sued, rather than the actual lawsuits themselves, that they
 count on to keep people in line.

response 24 of 55:

Nov 12 04:24 UTC 2007

If you keep posting this many short and relatively meaningless things I am
going to stop reading your posts.  Please think before you post.  I am not
trying to be mean, just letting you know the effect that it has when you post
one line in every item but don't really have a lot to say.  It takes a lot
longer to go through agora.

response 26 of 55:

Nov 12 20:48 UTC 2007

tl;dr

response 28 of 55:

Dec 3 17:59 UTC 2007

Here comes the Grinch with more Christmas Shopping Cheer!!  

"http://www.reuters.com/article/musicNews/idUSN0132742320071201?sp=true

It's Billboard's coverage of album sales for the week including Black
Friday, the unofficial start to the holiday gift-shopping season.

>> " Merchants reported a comparable-store music sales decline
>> ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent for the weekend that begins 
>> with Black Friday, although they said robust movie and videogame
>> sales helped soften the blow.

>> "Nielsen SoundScan data backs up those merchants' reports. Album
>> sales totaled 13.9 million during the week ended November 25, an 
>> 18 percent decline from the 17 million sold last year during the
>> Thanksgiving weekend." << ENDQUOTE

One number leaps out as especially dire, reflecting the collapse of 
Tower Records plus sizable closures of other chain retailers such as
Virgin Megastore and Transworld/FYE: 

>> "By store type, album sales at chains (including merchants
like Trans World, Best Buy and Barnes & Noble) were down *** 40 ***
percent, indies were down 22.6 percent, and mass merchants were down 6
percent. However, nontraditional outlets were up 17.7 percent." <<

   (Nontraditional merchants are dominated by Amazon;
    Starbucks is also lumped in here.)

Most retailers are blaming a lack of new hit releases.  (Why are there
no new hit releases?)   Wal-Mart did very well with their exclusives
on the Eagles and Garth Brooks.

One small music retailer in Wisconsin said DVD sales were skyrocketing.
>> "At the 10-unit Exclusive Co. in Oshkosh, Wis., for example,
>> general manager Stephanie Huff reported that DVDs were up 216 
>> percent Thanksgiving week. TV shows drove the DVD surge, 
>> she added."

-----

Note that the Nielsen Soundscan number for album sales (digital tracks
sold in an album bunch, and physical CDs) was down 14% Year-To-Date
leading up the Thanksgiving.  To have that number suddenly accelerate
to 18% (week to same week year ago) for the week indicates that there
is no hope of any improvement in sales for holiday season 2007.
I expect physical retailers to go forward with their worst-case
plans for reducing their CD-selling operations in early 2008.  This is
likely to be 30% floorspace reductions and more at the mass merchants
-- how much space does Wal-Mart need to sell its two hit artists? --
and many indie stores will just surrender as lease renewal 
comes around, as they contemplate business prospects over the next
several years.

response 30 of 55:

Dec 3 18:48 UTC 2007

My old homey..
December 3, 2007

BY GRETA GUEST
FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER

Record Time in Ferndale will wind down operations after the holidays with a
clearance sale before its owner consolidates operations at his flagship
Roseville store.

The Roseville store opened in 1983, with Ferndale following in 2000. Owner
Mike Himes said his business will focus on the Roseville and eBay stores,
Amazon.com and his e-commerce site.

"We have lasted longer than anyone else has, so we must be doing something
right," Himes said. "I love the vibe here in Ferndale. There just aren't
enough people coming in." 
Ferndale's main shopping area on Nine Mile has declined along with Michigan's
economy. Empty storefronts are becoming more common, particularly since the
Old Navy store at Woodward and Nine Mile closed in the summer. 

But news of the impending closure of another independent music store feels
like Harmony House all over again. Harmony House went out of business in 2002.

"It's kind of a sad thing," said Jonny Victor, 32, who was shopping at Record
Time in Ferndale last week. "I much prefer to shop at an independent music
store. I like to get the actual CDs instead of downloading them." 

The Farmington Hills resident said he had been going to a music store in Novi
until it closed. Then he found Record Time.

A trend winds down

About 1,200 independent music stores have closed since January 2003, said Joel
Oberstein, president of Studio City, Calif.-based Almighty Institute of Music
Retail, which offers marketing and other services to independent record
stores. 

There are still about 2,500 left, Oberstein said. In Michigan, 42 independent
music stores have closed, leaving 63 stores, according to the institute's
figures.

Harmony House closed its remaining 20 stores in 2002. The local chain was
founded in 1947, but the mix of competition from Internet downloads and
mass-market retailers did it in. The chain had 38 stores at its peak in 1999.

"What you are finding now is there is a survival of the fittest mentality in
many of the stores," Oberstein said.

The stores that make it amid double-digit percentage declines in CD sales and
other economic pressures are the ones that diversify by selling other items
in the store, such as T-shirts, and selling online, Oberstein said. 

"You have to do a little bit of everything, I guess," said Mike Rome, co-owner
of Street Corner Music in Beverly Hills.

Putting items online

Rome said he sells records and 45s on eBay and puts CDs that don't sell in
the store on Amazon.

Himes said he expects to start the clearance sale Dec. 29, and it will
continue until he can sublet the 4,400-square-foot store to another business.
He's hoping to close in February.

Sales at the Ferndale store are down 10% to 30% most weeks, Himes said, while
the Roseville store has been holding its own.

"We sell music physically. The east side, being more blue-collar, is less
affected by techology. The west side is more affected by technology and the
iPod age," Himes said. "It feels like I'm selling typewriters or pay phones;
you don't see those anymore." 

Himes also feels frustrated by an industry where all the marketing dollars
are moving toward the digital delivery of music.

Also, exclusive content is first going to venues like iTunes, and the
independents can't get it for 60 days. Big box retailers are also getting
exclusives the little guys can't.

"We're looked at as a last stop, even though we are the people who get bands
started," Himes said. "They say they appreciate what we do, but sometimes
we've got to wonder."

Himes said he will let go about five employees in Ferndale when he transfers
all operations to Roseville.

He has 15 employees at the 9,000-square-foot Roseville store on Gratiot near
I-696.

"We are leaving Ferndale, but we want to make Roseville bigger and better,"
Himes said.

response 32 of 55:

Dec 3 19:06 UTC 2007

Re resp:30: I really feel for Michigan.  The national economy is about
to go into another recession, and Michigan hasn't even recovered from
the previous one yet.

response 34 of 55:

Dec 3 19:48 UTC 2007

I was in California visiting a sister over Thanksgiving, which meant I had
an opportunity to peruse some of the sale circulars for Black Friday and
the rest of the post-Thanksgiving weekend.

Although I remember the advertisements for Best Buy, Circuit City, Target,
etc, prominently featuring sales on DVDs, I can't remember any of them
devoting a significant amount of space in their sale circulars to music.
In other words chain stores didn't even bother really promoting music sales
this Thanksgiving weekend, either because they knew they didn't have anything
that would draw in customers or because they expected other items (DVDs, etc)
to do better.  Note that most of these chains had advertisments featuring
specials on MP3 players, so it's not that they didn't expect people to spend
money on equipment to listen to music, just not on the music itself..

(There's another possibility, though:  I didn't study the advertisements
closely -- it's possible there *was* some music prominently featured but that
the titles were so forgettable to me that I even forgot about the
advertisement.  I'm not sure that's a brighter scenario from the record
companies' points of view..)

response 36 of 55:

Dec 3 22:17 UTC 2007

Which I suppose is a blessing and a curse. 

Sure, there's something to be said about the instant gratification of getting
music online, but there are some titles that I want a full-fidelity (issues
about CD level boosting aside) rendition of. 

I don't really care too much about the latest Rhianna song sonding a bit
compressed, but I care a whole lot about losing *anything* in a Kolacny
Brothers recording. 

I used to love going to Harmony House to find more obscure albums... but then
their Novi store became a mega JoAnn Fabrics, followed by their Farmington
store becoming nothing. 

So I found a new home at Record Collector in Livonia, forcing them to promptly
close. 

Repeat the Beat in Plymouth? Gone.

Switched On CD's in Novi? Gone.

Even Borders has switched to mini kiosks of hypercompressed "everything in
the store" samples, instead of legitimate listening stations where you could
hear a full track if you wanted to.

At that rate, it begs the question: Why drive 30 minutes to listen to crappy
mp3 samples of music on headphones of dismal quality and questionable hygiene,
when I can listen to crappy mp3 samples of music on decent speakers on demand,
spend half as much money on the product, and save gas by not driving?

Then again, it also goes back to UScan. Much like I'm doing a cashier's job
at a store with a UScan, I'm doing the production factory's job buying and
burning my discs from iTunes or Amazon. 

Anyway...

Music is broken. 

response 38 of 55:

Dec 3 23:02 UTC 2007

Unfortunately, the demand for high-quality audio content (or video for
that matter) doesn't seem to be all that great.  The trend is toward
quantity and convenience over quality.