richard
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Win the electoral college but lose the popular vote?
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Nov 1 02:25 UTC 2000 |
Tonight, widely respected pollster John Zogby, released his latest
poll numbers. He shows Bush up by five points nationally, but losing
the electoral college. He says there is a real possibility that Gore gets
elected even though he loses the popular vote.
Zogby's national numbers are BUSH 46
GORE 41
UNDECIDED 8
NADER 4
BUCHANAN 1
(eight percent undecided a week before a presidential election is almost
unheard of)
Anyway Zogby also did state by statepolls in the battleground states.
Here's what he shows:
Florida (Gore now up 12 points)
Wisconsin (Gore up 12)
Illinois (Gore up by 6)
Pennsylvania (Gore up by 4)
Michigan (Gore up by 2)
Washington (tied)
Tennesee (Bush up by 3)
Ohio (Bush up by 7)
Missourri (Bush up by 4)
Those nine states have 153 electoral votes, and Zogby shows Gore getting
99 and Bush 43. Gore is viewed as having 164 safe and Bush 194. Add
these nine states and you get Gore 263 and Bush 237
This leaves Oregon, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada and Arkansas as the
remaining swing states. Under this tally, Gore only needs seven more
votes to reach the magic 270. He'd win by either winning any one of those
seven states, or winning Washington where he's tied, or winning his
home state of Tennesee (where race is now within marginof error and
probably will break for based on turnout).
Zogby says Bush's national lead is based on huge majorities in the
southern and mountain states, and Texas. Bush couild win the popular vote
if there is a heavy turnout in those states. But Zogby shows Gore winning
the electoral college.
This could get VERY interesting!
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richard
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response 4 of 409:
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Nov 1 03:38 UTC 2000 |
Here'sone of the stories:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican George W. Bush established a five-point
lead over Democrat Al Gore in Tuesday's Reuters/MSNBC national daily
tracking poll, but Gore increased his strength in three key states.
The national survey of 1,209 likely voters in the Nov. 7 election,
conducted Saturday through Tuesday by pollster John Zogby, found the Texas
governor with 46 percent and the vice president with 41 percent. One week
remains until the Nov. 7 election.
Green Party nominee Ralph Nader polled 4 percent; Reform Party candidate
Pat Buchanan stayed at 1 percent; Libertarian Harry Browne had 1 percent,
and the rest remained undecided.
The race remained just within the statistical margin of error of plus or
minus three percentage points. A candidate would have to be more than six
points in the lead to be outside that zone of uncertainty -- something
neither man has achieved since the poll began on Sept. 29.
Still, the figures represented Bush's greatest lead since the daily poll
got under way.
Separate polls of around 600 likely voters in each of nine key
battleground states showed a somewhat different picture, with Gore not
showing any appreciable slippage and increasing his lead in Florida,
Michigan and Pennsylvania. These state polls had statistical margins of
error of plus or minus four points.
Zogby noted that the two findings were not necessarily contradictory and
raised the prospect of Bush winning the popular vote but losing the
Electoral College and thus the presidency.
"It is possible for one candidate to win 16 large states and lose 34 and
yet still win the election. We know Bush has large majorities in many
southern and mountain states, but the heavily populated states in the
Midwest and the West remain very, very close,'' he said.
The results showed Gore had expanded his lead in the key state of Florida
from 11 to 12 percentage points, outside the margin of error. Many
analysts believe that is a must-win state for Bush and doubt whether
Gore's true lead is that large.
Gore also had a 12-point lead in Wisconsin and a six-point lead in
Illinois. He was ahead by two points in Michigan and by four points in
Pennsylvania -- in each case a one-point increase for the vice president.
But Gore lost his lead in Washington, which was now tied.
Bush's lead in Gore's home state of Tennessee narrowed from to three from
four points. He led by seven points in Ohio, and by four points in
Missouri, increasing his advantage in these two states.
In total, 153 votes in the Electoral College are up for grabs in those
nine states. At the moment, Gore would win 99 and Bush would take 43 of
those votes. Washington's 11 electoral votes are up for grabs.
A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to be elected president. Most
analysts believe both candidates have definitely secured about 200,
leaving some 138 to be fought over.
In the equally tight race for the House of Representatives, the two
parties were tied at 42 percent. The Democrats need a net gain of seven
seats to regain control from the Republicans after six years in the
minority.
In the national presidential poll, men backed Bush, 51-31 percent; women
preferred Gore by 47-41 percent as the electorate continued to show a
substantial gender gap.
Bush led among whites by 50-38 percent while Gore was ahead among
Hispanics and blacks.
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