E-mail from Palm Beach County, Florida

Nov 9 21:43 UTC 2000

Here is some e-mail from a Democratic Party observer in Palm Beach County,
Florida:

Date: Thursday, November 09, 2000 9:08 AM
 

 Hello again,
 Thought you'd like another update from the inside.  I spent much of Wed. 
 as
 the Palm Beach County Dem. Party observer in the recount room at the Palm
 Beach County Supervisor of Elections.  Also present were lawyers and a
 staffer representing GWB, several lawyers representing Gore,
 representativesof the Reform Party, the Fla. Democratic and Republican
 Parties, the
 DNCC,US Rep. Clay Shaw and his Dem. challenger Elaine Bloom (this race is
 still contested), a Dem. State Senator and a Dem. State Representative
 from the County.

 The recount was supposed to begin at 1:30, was delayed until 4:00 and
 ended
 at 11:30.  Our role basically consisted of sitting in a cramped room
 watching
 five staffers run stacks of puch card ballots through counting machines.
 Pretty dull all in all until it was discovered that one precinct had not
 been
 counted in full.  This resulted in a net gain for Al of about 360 votes.
 The Bush boys lost their smug attitudes and began huddling and whispering
 every few minutes.

 The absentees came through for Al too.  When one votes at the polls in
 Florida, they provide a punch instrument which, if used correctly,
 completely
 perforates the ballot.  However, absentee voters often use a pen or other
 implement which does not fully perforate the card.  This was apparent to
 us
 from the fact that over 10,000 voters in the County, about 2.2% of the
 overall turnout did not make any choice in the Presidential race, but did
 vote in the US Senate or Congressional races.  We theorized that many
 voters
 had partially perforated the card, but the machines weren't reading them.
 The more times the ballots are run through the counting machine, the more
 likely the loosened chits fall off.

 When the absentees were counted, 221 ballots that had previously
 registered
 no vote now did show a vote in the Presidential race.   These went
 overwhelmingly for Gore, leading to some whooping and high fiving from
 our
 side.  The Bushies really lost it at this point and got a little hostile 
 with
 the staffers, which in turn elicited some harsh responses from the
 assembled masses.

 Gore's net gain in the County was 643.  Word from other counties is that
 Gore closed the 1,700 deficit by over 1,200.  Only half of the counties
 conducted their recounts on Wednesday.  The rest are on Thursday.

 The bigger problem is that the ballot in Palm Beach County, which differs
 in
 its layout from the ballots elsewhere in the State, is illegal for
 several
 reasons.  Florida statutes specifically mandate the precise layout of
 the ballot and the order of candidates.  The law was not followed.
 Bush's name
 was first, with Buchanan below him and Gore third.  This is completely
 improper, as well as the fact that the law requires the names to be
 placed to
 the left with the punch holes to the right of the candidates' names.
 On this ballot, some names were on the right and some on the left, with
 all of
 the punch holes in the middle.  It was difficult to line up the name with
 the correct hole.

 Moreover, 19,000 ballots were disqualified because they voted for two
 or more candidates.  This is a direct result of the confusing layout of
the
 names on the ballot.  This represents over 4% of the total ballots.  It
 was as high as
 15% in some predominantly African-American precincts and about 10% in
 some precincts with large numbers of Jewish retirees.  The Gore vote in
 many of these precincts was over 90%.

 This explains the networks' exit polling which reflected voters' belief
 that
 they had voted for Gore, but in fact their ballots had been disqualified.
 This led to the initial awarding of Florida to Gore.

 Folks, the bottom line is that if the names on the ballot were properly
 situated Gore would have had an additional 11-13,000 vote margin in this
 County, and the election would be over.  We have done a precinct by
 precinct
 analysis of where the disqualified votes came from.  By attributing the
 same percentage of the vote Gore obtained in those precincts to the
 disqualified ballots, Gore would be winning Florida by at least 10,000
 votes.  In
 other words, Gore has actually won the election both in the popular vote
 and in the electoral vote, but he may well still lose it.

 You should also be aware that other large counties in the State
 disqualified
 about one half of one percent of their ballots for casting two or more
 votes
 in the Presidential race.  In Palm Beach County it was 4.4%.

 Lastly, don't expect the recount to be over on Thursday, as the media is
 stating.  Legal actions are underway.  The next question, will a judge
 order a re-vote just in Palm Beach County with a new ballot?

response 2 of 211:

Nov 9 22:31 UTC 2000

It would seem only fair.

response 4 of 211:

Nov 9 23:36 UTC 2000

  There are multiple millions of people in Florida and the networks
  might have sampled, at best, a small portion of the 19,000 voters 
  whose ballots were disqualified.  How, then, do those ballots
  "clearly explain" the networks' premature predictions? 

  Even if every single ballot disqualified had been cast for Gore, the
  19,000 vote difference would still have been well within the polls'
  margins of error and a putatively accurate final prediction from the
  networks based on figures that were well within their polls' margins
  of error would have been irresponsible (to say the least.)

response 6 of 211:

Nov 10 16:52 UTC 2000

At least we're not in Bushland.   8-)

response 8 of 211:

Nov 10 21:00 UTC 2000

  OK, that's what they said..  When the alternative is that they admit
  making irresponsible and inaccurate predictions, which statement do you
  think is more likely, regardless of truth?

response 10 of 211:

Nov 10 22:30 UTC 2000

Personally I think that the media should keep there mouths shut until after
the las polling place has closed.

response 12 of 211:

Nov 11 00:59 UTC 2000

If I recall, the VNS does exit polls in a handful of "key" precincts 
and not in every precinct. If one or more of the key precincts are in 
the counties under question, it is possible for the voter errors to 
significantly affect exit poll data. 

response 14 of 211:

Nov 11 02:28 UTC 2000

The judge that issued the restreaining order is a democratic appointee of
Lawton Childes, who donated several thousand dollars to the Clinton defense
fund and to the Gore election fund.  She should recuse herself as Bush's
brother has done.

response 16 of 211:

Nov 11 02:38 UTC 2000

The libertarians, I presume.

response 18 of 211:

Nov 11 04:41 UTC 2000

They should have let an unbiased Jeb Bush appointee rule on the issue,
obviously.

response 20 of 211:

Nov 11 05:20 UTC 2000

Lying is one of the things margin of error is designed to cover.  

response 22 of 211:

Nov 11 06:51 UTC 2000

Early in the day? The polls have to close and ballots counted before
any numbers are available. 

I don't lie or tell the truth - I tell them I voted a secret ballot.

response 24 of 211:

Nov 11 07:15 UTC 2000

That's a pretty liberal use of the term "accurate".