Grex Music3 Conference

Item 41: The Crash in the Music Business

Entered by krj on Wed Oct 3 00:17:05 2001:

Here's one of my hobbyhorses again.  You're probably all bored
with reading about it, but the juxtaposition of the following 
two news stories was too much for me to resist.

(1)  "Music industry seeks to change tune as sales stall"

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010928/en/music-industry_1.html
 
Two of the major labels, EMI and BMG, came out with very disappointing 
financial reports.

On Friday, the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry
(IFPI -- essentially the global version of the RIAA)
reported sales for the first half of 2001 were down:
   -5%   by value
   -6.7% by units sold

Quotes:
> ``What we're seeing is a serious structural shift in the music 
> industry. It's not a short-term problem --
> on a compound basis over the past five years, music sales have 
> fallen 1.5 percent each year,'' said
> Helen Snell, analyst at ABN Amro.
      note that "over the last five years" means that 
      the start of the slowdown goes back before Napster
      and before CD burners became common.

> ``The industry has to go back to basics and reinvent itself. 
> It needs to look at the whole concept of
> ownership of music.''
      One wonders what that means.  I think what 
      it means is that, like Microsoft, the industry 
      wants us to pay ongoing license fees to rent recordings.

> While the knee-jerk reaction of most music groups is 
> to shave costs back to the bone, analysts say
> they must still pour money into finding hot, new acts 
> and throw themselves more vigorously into
> developing the next format to replace the CD.
      Oh dear.  The success of the CD rollout has the industry 
      thinking it can snap its fingers and everyone will rush
      out and replace their entire library.

      What they miss completely is that the switch to the CD
      was consumer-driven.  Most of my friends were eager to 
      *flee* from their LPs, the cleaning rituals and
      the finicky turntables.  CDs offered a real improvement
      in sound quality for everyone (except maybe the most 
      wealthy analog fans) plus convenience and durability.

      Consumers have already made their choice for the 
      next format:  the Mp3 file.  The industry has no intention
      of accepting the consumer decision.
      
-------------------------------------

The labels made great piles of money re-selling their 60s and 70s 
catalog on CD; this torrent of money obscured the crisis that was  
developing in their new artist sales. 

New artists just weren't selling as well as the old artists did.
The labels tried to hide this crisis when they banished catalog sales to a  
separate chart -- it was too embarrassing to see new hot-selling 
releases intermixed with old dinosaurs like DARK SIDE OF THE MOON
and JOURNEY'S GREATEST HITS.

What the industry doesn't grasp is that the LP-> CD replacement was 
a one-time bonanza.  People replaced LPs because they were worn out.
CDs, on the other hand, are generally in as good shape as the
day they were sold.  

-------------------------------------

(2)  "'O Brother' Soundtrack Is Talk Of Bluegrass Convention."

http://www.vh1.com/thewire/content/news/1449510.html
 
Mercury Records reports that worldwide sales of the O BROTHER album 
are now up to three million copies.  This is astounding for
a fairly traditional folk/bluegrass/old-timey collection with little
promotional push and little radio airplay behind it.

T-Bone Burnett produced the music for the film and the CD.
You probably never heard of him unless you are a certain kind of 
music fan; he played in a great 1970s group called The Alpha Band, 
he played backup for Dylan for a while, he's married to an interesting
pop singer named Sam Phillips, he's done some work with Richard 
Thompson.   

In this article, Burnett is being 
quoted about how the inspiration for the O BROTHER tunes came 
from a conversation 

> ...with the abstract artist Larry Poons, talking about Ralph Stanley.
>
> Burnett said Poons had remarked to him that, "We live in an age 
> of music for people who don't like music."  This set Burnett to 
> thinking about real versus manufactured music.  "What he was saying
> was this: the record business learned years ago that not that many
> people like music.  Some people can do without it, some people are 
> annoyed by it...  The basic record company philosophy has for some
> time been that if you remove the aspects of [a particular form of 
> music] that the audience finds challenging, you have a better 
> chance of selling the stuff. ...    

So I'm starting to get optimistic about the crash in the music business.
It's possible that the public at large is losing interest in music
as mindless entertainment.
I'm hoping that maybe the music which was made solely to provide a 
return on capital will get out of the way, and maybe what's left 
of the music business can be handed back to people who actually 
care about music.
71 responses total.

#1 of 71 by krj on Wed Oct 3 00:33:32 2001:

((Yeah, this might have gone into the Napster item, but it was 
too big, and it's about a larger issue than Napster.  
Linked between Agora and Music, of course.))


#2 of 71 by mdw on Wed Oct 3 06:47:40 2001:

Actually, I didn't replace a LP library.  I figured out that LP's were a
losing proposition, waited for CD's to come out, and invested in a CD
library.  I also have a small cassette library, which I accumulated
before CD technology was cheap enough, mostly involving non-mainstream
musicians who were never available via LP's.  My buying patterns may
have matched what Ken describes as a "conversion to CDs", perhaps
preceeded by a "renting music on tape" phase, but my actual reasons are
actually significantly different, and based more on perceived durability
and "per-play" low cost (and accessibility to fringe-market artists)
than the music industry might like to believe.


#3 of 71 by russ on Wed Oct 3 13:30:01 2001:

I'm with you on this, Ken.  If the RIAA forces all new music to
be published in a format incompatible with legacy hardware or
fair-use rights, I will stop buying new music.  There's plenty
of stuff out there that's very listenable, and new laws like the
DMCA can't touch you for copying it *because it's not protected*.
Somehow I can't get upset about someone copying a Miles Davis
CD; it's not like the artist is losing any benefit, or had children
who are still minors.  If I can't get some legacy Weather Report in
CD, I suppose I'll "pirate" it.  I won't shed tears over that
either; the term of copyright is unconscionably long.

Then there are independent artists, who probably won't have the
clout to get their music into the RIAA-approved formats because
they can't get major-label contracts.  However, they'll still
be able to print CDs for cheap.  I find a lot of their stuff to
be very listenable too, and I support them with my money when
I can find them.  I doubt that the CD is going away any time soon.
I'm going to buy Chris Smither's next CD, and Greg Howard's too.

What is going away is the hype-inflated balloons like N'Sync.
They're a pox on music; I can't wait for them to disappear.


#4 of 71 by richard on Wed Oct 3 13:32:34 2001:

And a lot of those studio execs think the quick fix is to come out with
another format, so people will be encouraged to replace their catalogs
again as happened when cd's came out.  but the problem is that mini-cd's,
dat's, cd-dvd/dvd-audio's .etc are all nice but dont represent enough of
an improvement over cd's for most to want to spend the money to replace
them.

in fact the next step isnt a new format to keep people coming into record
stores, but rather the elimination of record stores.  when you can buy
and store all your music as computer files efficiently, there wont be a
need to even step out of the house.  


#5 of 71 by keesan on Wed Oct 3 14:47:32 2001:

I acquired an LP collection in the past three years and have collected lots
of used tapes to tape them to.  Have never bought a CD.  It helps not to be
a fussy listener, and to like classical music.  The quality of LPs is good
enough for me - that of 78s was not.  I have five free turntables and about
15 tape decks (most probably fixable) so am set for life.  Radio is free and
sounds even better than my tapes.  Why pay for music at all?


#6 of 71 by pfv on Wed Oct 3 14:48:14 2001:

As was the case in even lp's: once you've a friend owns a copy, the
duplication is trivial.. ANY format they try to impose is gonna' be a royal
pain - to themselves - because "damnfew" are going to buy the new devices
and media, but copies will be available within a day ;->


#7 of 71 by brighn on Wed Oct 3 16:17:38 2001:

People will always find a way... the hackers of the world will always find
a way, and the "casually dishonest" who home copy for friends will be out in
the cold, as will be the people who want to archive their own damn music for
their own damn usage.


#8 of 71 by tpryan on Wed Oct 3 17:01:36 2001:

        What of material no longer in distribution?  CDs that have
gone out of print.  LPs that never been released as CDs?   
        When a record company takes existing stock and liquidates it,
marking it as a 'cut-out', they are giving up on selling that album
(regardless of media) at their full price (to distributors), and
instead are just selling the plastic.  The artists do not receive
sales royalities on those units, nor do the liquidated unit count
count as units sold.
        How can I be harming a record company or artist by passing
some of that music along to others?


#9 of 71 by rcurl on Wed Oct 3 17:24:29 2001:

After the copyright has expired you can do so freely. 


#10 of 71 by polygon on Wed Oct 3 17:31:32 2001:

But copyrights don't expire any more.  Any time some get close, Congress
extends the term again.


#11 of 71 by remmers on Wed Oct 3 17:34:14 2001:

(Unless the technology prevents you...)


#12 of 71 by brighn on Wed Oct 3 18:05:17 2001:

Shakespeare isn't under copyright. ;}
then again, specific audio performances of Shakespeare can be under
copyright...

Copyrights don't really expire, but creators can release items into public
domain.


#13 of 71 by rcurl on Wed Oct 3 18:29:53 2001:

I thought many items enter the public domain automatically after some
time. What are the circumstances for that?  "Clementine" is in the
public domain, but "Happy  Birthday" is not. Why?


#14 of 71 by dbratman on Wed Oct 3 19:10:54 2001:

"Happy Birthday" is a lot newer than "Clementine", that's why.


#15 of 71 by micklpkl on Wed Oct 3 19:12:12 2001:

I don't understand any of this enough to verify the accuracy, but there is
a table available here:

http://www.unc.edu/~unclng/public-d.htm

"When Works Pass into the Public Domain" Includes material from new Term
Extension Act, PL 105-298


#16 of 71 by orinoco on Wed Oct 3 19:13:32 2001:

Past a certain number of years after the creator's death, material becomes
public domain.  However, new laws are occasionally passed which extend that
certain number of years.  

Conveniently enough, these laws are always timed such that Walt Disney's
copyrights never expire.  Funny how that works...

Really, though, I shouldn't be explaining this, because I'm sure someone who
knows more than me will come along and render this post irrelevant. <g>


#17 of 71 by orinoco on Wed Oct 3 19:14:02 2001:

Wow.  I've been rendered pre-emptively irrelevant, even.  Mickey slipped in.


#18 of 71 by micklpkl on Wed Oct 3 19:22:29 2001:

Here's another page that has an simple message:

Sound Recording Rule of Thumb:
There are NO sound recordings in the Public Domain.

http://www.pdinfo.com/record.htm - The Public Domain Information Project.


#19 of 71 by rcurl on Wed Oct 3 19:49:11 2001:

Good information in both #15 & #18. Check again on recorded music in 2067.


#20 of 71 by brighn on Wed Oct 3 20:21:55 2001:

"Happy Birthday" also has a weird story to it. The melody itself is something
like 120 years old or so, but it was only formally copyrighted after the
family of the "composer" sued. "Happy birthday" weren't the original words;
they were the words of the new version being sued over. I believe the original
words were "Merry Christmas to you, ..."

But this entire anecdote is from memory because I'm too lazy right now to look
it up online. =} So I could have mashed it up terribly.


#21 of 71 by mcnally on Wed Oct 3 23:50:45 2001:

  (I thought it was "Good morning to you.")


#22 of 71 by russ on Thu Oct 4 00:17:54 2001:

Re #9:  What DVD is still going to be playable in 95 years?

Even if the copyright expires, the anti-circumvention clauses of
the DMCA do not.  Once you can no longer buy a DVD player, you
will forever lose access to the content on your DVDs because
circumventing the access controls to play them remains a felony
even after 95 years.  Even hacking something to let you skip past
commercials (something that DVDs can and do forbid) is probably
enough to get you tossed into prison, especially if you have the
temerity to tell the public how to do it for themselves.

Congress is busy screwing the consumer (citizen) at the behest
of the RIAA and MPAA.  I love my country, I'm *disgusted* with
my government.


#23 of 71 by mcnally on Thu Oct 4 00:23:16 2001:

  Are you certain that the anti-circumvention measures of the DMCA
  really apply to uncopyrighted material?  That sounds suspect to me..


#24 of 71 by orinoco on Thu Oct 4 02:57:27 2001:

"Good Morning To You" sounds about right to me also.  Then again, there could
well be dozens of versions...


#25 of 71 by remmers on Thu Oct 4 15:28:08 2001:

Re #23:  If I remember correctly, the anti-circumvention measures
of the DMCA apply to the *potential* use of technology, not
the actual use.  Sort of like making it illegal to own matches
because they *could* be used to commit arson.

The free dissemination of information is a cornerstone of a
democratic society.  This includes the right to pass along
information which you receive to others, possibly by making
multiple copies.  The copyright laws were originally intended
as a limited exception to protect the rights of authors to
receive reasonable compensation for their creative efforts
by granting a *temporary* exclusive license to reproduce and
sell their work.  If I remember correctly, when I was younger,
copyrights on published material were valid for something like
27 years, renewable *once* for an equal period of time.  After
that, the work went into the public domain.

The modern trend to make copyrights longer and longer is
certainly not in the public interest, and hardly protects the
original authors, who will almost certainly have been long
dead by the time the copyright on their stuff expires (if
indeed it ever does).  Whose interests do perpetually-
extended copyrights serve, then?  It's pretty clear to me
that they serve the interests of extremely wealthy publishers
who have the power to buy Congressional votes.  Laws like
the DMCA and the proposed SSSCA are, in my opinion, are
horrible inventions intended only to provide tools for the
enforcement of these undemocratic perpetual franchises.

Can you say "We *really* need campaign finance reform"?  I
knew you could!


#26 of 71 by micklpkl on Thu Oct 4 15:35:41 2001:

Very well "said," John. I agree.


#27 of 71 by brighn on Thu Oct 4 18:13:58 2001:

"Good Morning" sounds correct to me, too. I threw out "Merry Christmas"
because I thought it scanned the same as "Happy Birthday," but it didn't sound
right at the time.


#28 of 71 by polygon on Thu Oct 4 20:35:42 2001:

Yes, the information on the page cited in #15 looks accurate to me.

Very much agreed with both russ and remmers here.


#29 of 71 by drew on Thu Oct 4 21:38:37 2001:

"We *really* need" requirement of direct popular YES vote to impliment do's
and don'ts. I for one can't imagine something like the DMCA getting that kind
of approval.


#30 of 71 by polygon on Thu Oct 4 21:46:12 2001:

Re 29.  Unfortunately, I can.  And worse things.


#31 of 71 by dbratman on Thu Oct 4 22:09:55 2001:

Direct popular vote of laws is, as a general policy, a really bad 
idea.  What Congress can be convinced to fall for is as nothing 
compared to what the general public can be convinced to fall for.


#32 of 71 by other on Thu Oct 4 23:06:02 2001:

Anyone who doubts #31 should take a look at the content of legislation 
passed by popular vote in the last 20 years in California. 


#33 of 71 by drew on Fri Oct 5 01:29:23 2001:

So how is it easier to buy 200 million people than to buy only 435 people?
Even so, I would propose it as a third requirement *on top of* getting through
the House and Senate.


#34 of 71 by mcnally on Fri Oct 5 02:36:54 2001:

  re #33:  

  > So how is it easier to buy 200 million people than to buy only 435?

  Who needs to "buy" them when such a huge percentage of television and
  radio stations are owned by only a few media conglomerates?   Besides,
  you'd only need to influence a majority of the voting population, which
  is a much smaller number than 200 million..


#35 of 71 by russ on Fri Oct 5 02:56:08 2001:

Repent!  The end is near!  polygon agree with me! ;-)

I don't think we need campaign finance reform to fix this matter.
A simple thing, like defining a Constitutional limit to the term
of copyright and defining fair use that cannot be limited by
either legally-backed technology or contract, would do the job.
I think a term of 28 years would be good.  I've never been able
to keep collecting paychecks on work 28 years after I did it;
that ought to be enough for anyone.


#36 of 71 by brighn on Fri Oct 5 03:07:26 2001:

(Russ, Larry agreed with me in the same week. It could either mean he's
getting soft, or we're both starting to make some degree of sense. No comment
on whic it is, or some combination thereof. ;} )


#37 of 71 by polygon on Fri Oct 5 04:16:57 2001:

Re 35.  Oh, come on, you and I agree on lots of things.

Re 36.  So are you going to agree with me and russ on copyright? :-)

I thought not!


#38 of 71 by brighn on Fri Oct 5 05:01:23 2001:

#37> I don't know, I haven't been paying enough attention to what you've been
saying. ;} On the comment you've made a few times, that the current copyright
law is absurdly complex, silly, and dysfunctional but basically allowing
copyrights to be extended ad nauseaum, I agree. I'm not sure what your
specific suggested solution is, if you'd care to summarize, I'll register
agreement or disagreement. =}

I think thing sshould be copyrighted a reasonable amount of time, say, ten
years from initial publication or twenty years from initial production,
whichever comes first. Something like that. And none of this "it's not
copyrighted till the author decides to submit it, and only then does the clock
start running," or whatever it was you said (it's late, my memory's rusty).

From what I've seen, I don't recall ever being in enough disagreement with
you on the subject to sit up and comment. ;}


#39 of 71 by dbratman on Fri Oct 5 21:23:30 2001:

If Drew's idea were put into effect, the populace would be in a 
continuous state of bombardment of political ads, to an extent that 
would make the height of recent presidential campaigns look quiet.

It may not be true that referendum legislation is _always_ stupider 
than what's passed by legislatures - and the remote possibility of 
doing an end run around legislatures is useful to protect - but most of 
our really stupid ideas have come up that way, notably massive property 
tax cuts and "stop me before I vote again" term limits.

Turning this back to music, Congress chose the Star-Spangled Banner as 
our national anthem some 70 years ago.  I'd hate to think what the 
public would choose, and worse still the continuous re-votes on the 
question.


#40 of 71 by keesan on Fri Oct 5 22:13:07 2001:

When I was in elementary school, the student with the highest grades had to
sing the national anthem at graduation.  They made an exception for me because
the high notes were impossible.  They could have at least picked something
easier to sing.
Any reason we could not change the national anthem every year?


#41 of 71 by bdh3 on Sat Oct 6 06:35:18 2001:

re#40: At first I thought what a dumb question.  And then as I believe
the only truely dumb question is the one that is never even though of
much less asked...  The US could change the national anthem every year,
and maybe someday it will (in my opinion twood be a bad sign).  But one
could dismiss the question, 'yeah, next thing you know we change the
flag every year'. 

Fact is, while we don't do it every year the last time we changed the US
flag was as recent as 1959 - not that long ago and it has gone through
many many changes over the course of our nation's history.  But on the
other hand it is the same flag - same design, same concept so I guess
its the same flag. (If you look at the 1813 US Flag you would recognize
it - the flag that inspired 'our national anthem' -sung to the tune of a
popular british drinking song...and written during the 'War of 1812') 
(We all know the proper lyrics to the brit's national anthem, "My
country tis of thee, Sweet land of Liberty...." written much earlier.)

I guess the answer is, "Because that would not be proper".  And yet,
what kind of an answer is that?  What is a 'national anthem'?  An
enduring musical symbol of the nation.  Well, then we can't change it
every year.  Yet, until 1916 when Woodrow Wilson ordered that it be the
'national anthem' played by the military and naval services we did
without an official one for 126 years - and since it wasn't written
until 1814 we'd done without it specifically for 24 years (or longer
depending on if you think the USA was founded in 1776 or 1790).  (One
could suggest that the 1931 Congressional Act of 3/3/1931 officially
designating by act of congress a fact that had previously been ordered
'by executive order' was simply 'the commies have a cool national song,
we should have one too' while at the same time making a point in the
struggle between the executive and legislative branches.)  It should be
noted that the third 'verse' of our now 'National Anthem' was not sung
by the time it became the 'official' - so we do change it, although not
every year.

My own opinion is that as the pace of cultural changes due to technology
increased there was a social need for 'constant enduring symbols' sort
of as an 'anchor' or 'security blanket' ((C)Shultz).  We socially need
cultural ikons.  One should note that the first thing the successor
nation to the USSR did was to revert to the old Czar's colors (without
the royal crest), and the second was the choose a new 'national anthem'.
And just recently they reverted to the old 'soviet' anthem, but with new
lyrics.  


#42 of 71 by drew on Sun Oct 7 18:24:01 2001:

I'll enter a separate item for discussion of direct versus representative
voting.


#43 of 71 by krj on Thu Oct 18 19:06:01 2001:

This item didn't really go where I was hoping it would; we already 
had the Napster item.
 
One particular meltdown I've been watching is the sales of Mariah 
Carey.  Virgin/EMI lured her away from Columbia/Sony with a deal worth
between 80 and 100 million dollars for four albums.  However, 
the sales of her new album GLITTER have not been impressive at 
all.  The album debuted at #7 with first week sales of about 116,000
copies; this was roughly one-third of what her last album sold 
in its debut week.  The album has steadily marched down the charts.
As of today it's at #34, with total sales of about a million.
Admittedly this includes the month following the attacks, but 
even in comparison to other CD sales right now, this is an 
incredibly bad performance, given what EMI invested in her.
(A million CDs sold would be a fine figure if the label hadn't
invested around 100 times that in the artist...)
(For comparison, the soundtrack to "O Brother Where Art Thou,"
which cost next to nothing up front, is at #19 on the chart.)

EMI chief Ken Berry has been sacked, though the Mariah deal 
was probably only part of his problems; he failed twice to get the 
company merged with another label.  There's a published rumor 
today (http://www.newmediamusic.com) that EMI is looking to 
extract itself from its contract with Mariah.

I suspect -- haven't done the research -- that the multimillion dollar
advance deals given to superstars have almost always failed for the 
labels.  I shouldn't just pick on Mariah here: I very much doubt that 
REM's megadeal paid off for Warner.


#44 of 71 by mcnally on Thu Oct 18 19:52:37 2001:

  We've heard for years that multi-million dollar deals for mega-stars
  have been killing the balance sheets of the big record companies --
  I think the first time I heard a similar story the album in question
  was Michael Jackson's follow-up to "Thriller".  So why do the record
  companies keep making them and if the deas are such financial poison
  why aren't the companies making them being eaten alive by competitors
  who aren't making the same mistakes?

  Also, in what universe could it *ever* have appeared to be a good
  idea to spend $80M for four Mariah Carey albums?  Even if you assume
  you can make back $4 for every CD you sell, that still means that 
  the four albums are each going to have to sell an average of five
  million copies apiece.  I can't think of *ANY* acts whose popularity
  I'd care to guarantee over the course of four yet-to-be-recorded albums.
  With typical album release schedules that's a timespan of four to ten
  years in a remarkably fickle industry.


#45 of 71 by krj on Thu Oct 18 20:42:22 2001:

I think the answer to the first part of Mike's resp:44 is ::
there are only five major record companies, and they are all making 
the same mistake of wildly overpaying for yesterday's top talent.
Entry to the oligopoly has proven impossible for anyone for at least
25 years, though the Zomba label is making a good run at it.


#46 of 71 by senna on Thu Oct 18 21:57:16 2001:

I thought the REM deal was bad when it was made.  It's the number of albums
expected to succeed that's the problem.  Almost nobody produces an album any
faster than two or three years a pop anymore, if they're successful.  That's
a span of 8-10 years that the albums in such a deal fall over, an eternity
in the music business.  No artists produce that many hit albums in a row
anymore, particularly not after already having had enough hits to engender
such a contract.  


#47 of 71 by keesan on Fri Oct 19 00:54:34 2001:

What are the five major companies and how many minor ones are there?
(roughly, or do you count anyone with a CD burner)


#48 of 71 by krj on Fri Oct 19 02:55:30 2001:

The five major companies, roughly in order of size:
    Vivendi Universal  (formed by Seagram's (the liquor company) merging 
                        Polygram and MCA, then becoming
                        acquired by a French conglomerate)
    AOL Time Warner
    Sony               (main US brand is Columbia)
    EMI
    BMG                (Bertelsmann Music Group, which bought out RCA 
                        years ago.)

Those five companies are generally believed to control 85% of 
the recorded music market; that number keeps shrinking every time
I see the figure reported over the last decade.

EMI tried to merge with both AOL Time Warner and BMG, and IIRC 
anti-trust regulators shot down both deals because they were not willing
to see the number of large music companies decline to 4.

The only large independents I can think of off the top of my head are 
Zomba and Palm Pictures.  The small independents might be uncountable.
I'm talking about real businesses selling manufactured CDs, not 
"anyone with a CD burner."  Maybe we could find a membership count 
from a trade association for indie labels -- was that NAIRD?


#49 of 71 by krj on Fri Oct 19 03:27:48 2001:

After a little Google search:  NAIRD renamed itself as AFIM, the 
Association For Independent Music, and their online directory 
lists 531 members, not all of which are record companies.  
It looks like the list is almost all North American.


#50 of 71 by gelinas on Fri Oct 19 04:45:40 2001:

A long time ago, in the days of primarily singles, my father pointed out that
less than half of the songs of even a top artist were hits:  the B side was
almost always a write-off.


#51 of 71 by polygon on Fri Oct 19 20:04:55 2001:

Re 50.  Or *designed* to be a write-off.  Does anyone remember "You Know My
Name, Look Up The Number"?  I have heard it twice ever, once in high school,
and again on a very peculiar radio show, which described it as "one of the
more *obscure* songs by the Beatles."


#52 of 71 by mcnally on Fri Oct 19 20:57:02 2001:

  Yes, "You Know My Name (Look Up the Number)" (available on one of the 
  "Past Masters" singles CDs, though I can't recall which one) is pretty
  bizarre and atypical for a Beatles song, though it's not the only oddity
  they ever produced just to fulfill the need to have a song to put on
  a B-side or fulfill some contractual requirement.  In fact, they even
  wrote a song just about this phenomenon and released it (along with a
  couple of other distinctly second-rate efforts) on the "Yellow Submarine"
  soundtrack.  It's called "Only a Northern Song" and Harrison's lyrics
  are pretty blunt about the subject:

        If you're listening to this song
        You may think the chords are going wrong
        But they're not..
        We just wrote it like that.

        It doesn't really matter what chords I play
        What words I say
        Or time of day it is
        As it's only a Northern song

        It doesn't really matter what clothes I wear
        Or how I fare 
        Or if my hair is brown..
        When it's only a Northern song.

        When you're listening late at night
        You may think the band are not quite right
        But they are, they just play it like that

        It doesn't really matter what chords I play
        What words I say or time of day it is
        As it's only a Northern song.

        It doesn't really matter what clothes I wear
        Or how I fare 
        Or if my hair is brown..
        When it's only a Northern song.

        If you think the harmony
        Is a little dark and out of key
        You're correct, there's nobody there.

        It doesn't really matter what chords I play
        What words I say or time of day it is
        And I told you there's no one there.


#53 of 71 by mcnally on Fri Oct 19 21:07:44 2001:

  But I digress..  Getting back to the subject at hand, how is it that
  the big-five record companies can make umpteen-million dollar mistakes
  time and time again, pass the costs along to their consumers, and still
  not get dismembered by their competition.  Is there any sensible way to
  account for this without concluding that some pretty serious anti-
  competitive collusion is keeping new players from threatening the
  entrenched powers?

  Even with only five major players (and a small army of smaller labels
  that are essentially vassals of whichever large conglomerate controls
  their distribution) doesn't it seem like a company which sinks $80-100M
  into a "sure thing" like Mariah Carey and then can't get it back should
  really be hurting compared to a company willing to invest that same $80M+
  into developing and promoting 50 relative unknowns in the expectation
  that maybe one or two of them can be developed into Mariah-level sellers?



#54 of 71 by scott on Fri Oct 19 22:37:48 2001:

What, me?  No, I'm not going to dispute that, Mike.  It sure seems like there
ought to be competition eating their lunch.


#55 of 71 by krj on Sun Oct 21 19:16:16 2001:

 Sunday's New York Times has a large piece on the 
 difficulties facing the classical music CD business.  The article 
 starts with Tower Records' decision in May to stop ordering from the 
 major independent classical distributors -- the article does say
 that Tower and the distributors have recently come to an agreement.
 
 But with Tower failing in its traditional role as the leading 
 retailer of serious classical music, and with the major labels abandoning
 the field, the article is skeptical about the survival of the business
 of manufacturing and distributing physical discs.  One person quoted 
 in the article brings up the point that David Bratman and I had made 
 earlier: browsing for classical music doesn't work in the online 
 CD stores like Amazon.com, and most of the serious classical collectors 
 seem to be dedicated browsers.
  
 The article suggests that, like it or not, the classical music business
 will rapidly be forced to pure digital distribution, and everybody 
 better get the bigger bandwidth needed to download larger works at 
 higher fidelity.
 
 http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/21/arts/music/21TOMM.html


#56 of 71 by krj on Mon Oct 22 16:48:46 2001:

The classical CD sales crash again, this one from an online magazine:
 
http://www.classicstoday.com/features/f2_1001.asp

"The Death of Deep Catalog"

The argument is that the small classical labels have poured out vastly
more CDs than the retailers or the market could absorb.  The retailers
have mostly responded by dropping classical music.  The article says 
that even Amazon has backed away from trying to stock a comprehensive
catalog.
 
Quote:
>   As the flood of new releases and reissues continues 
>   unabated, labels and distributors seem
>   unwilling to acknowledge that the death of the 
>   deep catalog store, largely a product of their
>   own stupidity in flooding the market with rafts 
>   of discs that no one wants, has thrust onto them
>   a new responsibility: that of dealing with the public 
>   directly in place of retailers who can't or
>   won't any longer. The ability of chain stores to 
>   suck up new releases and let them sit around in
>   the bins practically forever has, up to now, 
>   insulated producers and distributors from the
>   uncomfortable reality that the audience for their 
>   productions might be vanishing, small, or even
>   nonexistent...


#57 of 71 by dbratman on Mon Oct 22 22:01:21 2001:

The reason the majors can pour out millions for overpriced artists and 
not get eaten by the competition is that it's a good short-term 
strategy, and all the competition in the same league is doing the same 
thing.


#58 of 71 by scott on Tue Oct 23 00:24:40 2001:

I'm trying to remember if those megadeals actually count a lot of money
earmarked for promotion and such.  Would certainly make more sense that way,
as a business decision.


#59 of 71 by mcnally on Tue Oct 23 01:00:07 2001:

  I'm sure that whatever counting scheme they use would be unrecognizable
  to most of us, but it's still got to be impossible to make some of those
  deals pay no matter what sort of accounting tricks you engage in..


#60 of 71 by krj on Thu Oct 25 04:34:40 2001:

Still more classical bad news.  This is from http://www.gramophone.co.uk,
which appears to be only operational with MSIE.
 
Nimbus Records, a leading British classical label and UK distributor, 
has gone into receivership.  In the article, they say that they had 
been struggling for a while, but the collapse of business in the US 
after September 11 made it impossible to continue.

The article says that another British classical distributor has closed
recently, and yet another closure is imminent.


#61 of 71 by goose on Fri Oct 26 15:05:16 2001:

I wonder if they're connected with Nimbus the CD manufacturer and mastering
house?


#62 of 71 by krj on Fri Nov 2 00:43:42 2001:

Usenet reports indicated that the Nimbus record label sold off
the CD manufacturing operation some time earlier.
 
Copied from resp:music3,4,56 ::
The venerable Canadian firm Sam the Record Man, once the largest
music retailer in Canada, has filed for bankruptcy.  
My obituary for the store is in the Music conference, in 
the CD Store Obituary item -- I mean, the Music Retail item.  :(


#63 of 71 by krj on Thu Dec 20 02:26:58 2001:

Matt Drudge pointed to this item from the Sacramento Bee:
 
http://www.sacbee.com/state_wire/story/1348770p-1418333c.html

A number of big-time musicians are organizing a series of concerts
to raise money for a legal battle over their claim that the 
record companies systematically underpay royalties and generally
cheat the artists.  Participating musicians include 
Elton John, No Doubt, the Eagles, Billy Joel, Sheryl Crow, Stevie Nicks,
Offspring, and Weezer, plus unnamed R&B and country performers.


#64 of 71 by krj on Thu Dec 27 05:27:55 2001:

LA Times story:  the record biz is reeling from big dollar contracts
given to big name stars whose sales have plummeted.  Our sample 
artists are Mariah Carey, REM and Macy Gray.
 
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000102156dec26.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines
%2Dbusiness%2Dmanual
(sorry about the wrap)
"Labels Singing The Blues Over Expensive Failures"
 
quote:

> The Carey deal has turned out so badly that EMI music chief 
> Alain Levy, hired after the album was released, has initiated an 
> unusual attempt to cut the company's losses. Representatives for 
> EMI and Carey declined to comment. But several sources close to the 
> talks say EMI is pushing for a settlement with Carey under which 
> the singer would receive a multimillion-dollar lump sum in exchange 
> for agreeing to exit EMI's Virgin Records label.
> 
> "The cost of doing business is out of control," said one label chief 
> who spoke on condition of anonymity. ...


#65 of 71 by flem on Thu Dec 27 21:15:25 2001:

Yeah, those elected officials can get pretty expensive...


#66 of 71 by gull on Fri Dec 28 14:52:21 2001:

They just don't have the morals they used to.  Used to be when you 
bought a senator, they stayed bought.  Now you have to keep paying out 
over and over...


#67 of 71 by krj on Wed Jan 23 19:16:45 2002:

resp:43, resp:64 ::  It was quite entertaining watching EMI deny the 
story leaked by the LA Times on 12/27, that EMI was looking for a way
out of its $100 million contract with Mariah Carey.  
 
About an hour ago the news hit the wires: it's everywhere so I won't
bother with a link.  EMI is paying Mariah $28 million to go away.
Ms. Carey collects a total of $49 million dollars for her one album
GLITTER which sold 2 million copies.  In the Reuters story at the NYTimes,
some analysts think EMI was too quick to bail out on Mariah, who 
was the top-selling female singer of the 1990s, after one disappointing
album.  (2 million sales is disappointing!!!!!!)  Factors contributing
to poor sales of the album were a September 11 release date, and 
Ms. Carey's physical and emotional health problems which prevented
her from supporting the release with public appearances.


#68 of 71 by krj on Wed Jan 23 19:25:13 2002:

vh1.com has different sales numbers for the GLITTER album, though 
I suspect VH1 used USA sales and Reuters used world sales.  
From VH1.COM:
 
> The news comes on the heels of much industry speculation
> that the singer would be axed from the label, since her first
> Virgin album, Glitter, is considered to be one of the biggest
> commercial disappointments in recent years. The LP has sold
> just over 500,000 copies since its release September 11,
> according to  a paltry figure compared to some
> of Carey's previous albums for former label Columbia. By
> comparison, 1999's Rainbow sold more than 2.9 million copies,
> 1997's Butterfly sold more than 3.6 million and 1995's
> Daydream sold nearly 7.5 million.

Geez, what did the execs at EMI think when they looked at her sales
trend for the late 1990s?  No wonder former EMI head Ken Berry got sacked.


#69 of 71 by mcnally on Wed Jan 23 21:41:52 2002:

  Wow..  Even using the higher sales figures (2 million copies) 
  that's still $24.50 she's receiving per CD she actually sold.
  To put it another way, if EMI sells half a billion records this
  year, they'll essentially have to slap a ten cent Mariah Carey
  tax on every one of them.

  Better get shopping kids, the record companies are in trouble
  and they need your help!


#70 of 71 by tpryan on Wed Jan 23 23:07:57 2002:

        Selling 500,000 copies of an LP is rather astounding these
days.   Now selling 500,000 copies of a CD might be considered nice.


#71 of 71 by krj on Fri Feb 22 23:40:36 2002:

Distribution North America (DNA), which I believe to have been the 
leading distributor of indie rock CDs, has gone bankrupt.  
Ugh.  When the leading indie distributors went *boom* ten years ago,
some stuff went out of print, and some labels went away because they
couldn't absorb the loss of income they were due from the distributor.
Here's a story from the MSU State News:
 
http://www.statenews.com/article.phtml?pk=8889


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