Grex Coop10 Conference

Item 101: Cutting Costs

Entered by aruba on Mon Apr 27 19:03:48 1998:

Grex's costs went up quite a bit when we got our ISDN line, and when the
phone rates increased at the beginning of the year.  It would, of course,
be best if our income increased to match our improved connectivity, but so
far that has not happened.  It may still, of course, and I hope it does. 
But I think it would be prudent to consider cutting our costs as well.

Mostly, we have been very careful (read *slow*) about increasing Grex's
level of operation, so improvements have been anticipated and well
received.  This has helped us to avoid any white elephants.

But we all saw the nosedive that M-Net's finances took when they found
themselves with huge expenses and a shrinking membership.  While we are
*not* in that kind of trouble, we also should remember that example,
and not think that we will always be able to find the money to cover as
much service as we'd like to provide. 

So post suggestions for cutting Grex's costs here.
83 responses total.

#1 of 83 by aruba on Mon Apr 27 19:08:44 1998:

The first thing that comes to mind is dropping a phone line or two.  According
to scott, the last phone line in our hunt group only gets used for about 15
minutes a day.  If we dropped it, that would save us $18.46 a month (if I did
my calculations correctly), or about $220 per year.  It costs $42 to install
a new line, so we would have to drop it for at least 3 months in order to save
money.  After that, if we decide we need it again, we could have it
re-installed and still be ahead.


#2 of 83 by scg on Mon Apr 27 19:24:20 1998:

I would also suggest dropping the ICNet connection, which we aren't using at
all.  We're paying for two phone lines it uses.

There are also some longer term things we might want to look at, such as
switching to non-Centrex ISDN lines, which are cheaper.


#3 of 83 by scott on Mon Apr 27 19:30:05 1998:

I need to work on stats, but it looks like we aren't even using the last line.


#4 of 83 by mta on Tue Apr 28 21:24:13 1998:

It sounds then, like we could drop 3 line swithout much impact on 
anyone.  I think that would be the best place to start.


#5 of 83 by aruba on Thu Apr 30 07:08:32 1998:

Would antone like to make a case for keeping the ICNET connection?


#6 of 83 by remmers on Thu Apr 30 10:58:42 1998:

At the time we got the ISDN connection, I can recall two reasons
being given for keeping the IC-NET connection: (1) For backup if
the ISDN went down, and (2) for offloading certain kinds of
internet traffic, such as mail.

I don't have a case to make one way or the other, but maybe those
are issues to bear in mind in discussing whether or not to keep
the connection.


#7 of 83 by krj on Thu Apr 30 15:25:33 1998:

Wasn't there a thought that we would route mail through it?


#8 of 83 by remmers on Thu Apr 30 18:58:05 1998:

Yes, as I just said.


#9 of 83 by mta on Thu Apr 30 19:16:23 1998:

I think the fact that we didn't use the ICNet connection for backup during
our recent ISDN line troubles suggests that it isn't anyone's first choice.

That leaves the mail question -- 


#10 of 83 by dang on Fri May 1 14:56:39 1998:

I think we were expecting the ISDN to be more saturated than it is.  At this
point, there wouldn't really be a gain by offloading mail to another link,
because our main one isn't full.  I say get rid of it.


#11 of 83 by dpc on Sun May 3 20:11:33 1998:

Ditch the ICNet connection and one phone line *per month* until we get
complaints about busy signals.
        I'm quite surprised that our huge increase in speed hasn't caused
a big influx of bux.  But since it hasn't, aruba is right to emphasize
cutting costs.


#12 of 83 by remmers on Mon May 4 01:06:00 1998:

The speed increase is pretty recent. I think that it will pay off
eventually in the form of more membership income, but I'm not
surprised that the effect is delayed. New users seem to be popping
up in the conferences at a greater rate, probably because more
people are sticking around rather than being turned off immediately
by Grex's sluggishness the way they used to be.  Eventually, some of
these users will turn into paying members.


#13 of 83 by albaugh on Mon May 4 17:45:54 1998:

Just forget about killing one phone line per month.  If there are some metrics
that indicate that one or two lines are totally unutilized, then maybe cut
back if finances require it.  But I'll oppose any move to make grex a
telnet-access-only system.


#14 of 83 by aruba on Mon May 4 18:00:09 1998:

Certainly, I agree.  No one is proposing that, and I think all of us would 
rather see the dial-ins full than cut them.  But if we're paying for them and
they're not being used, we're wasting money.


#15 of 83 by scott on Mon May 4 18:42:53 1998:

one or two lines would be easy; the average use is in the neighborhood of 4
lines at any time, with peaks up to 10 and rarely is it over ten.  I'm still
waiting to accumulate certain stats befor I make a recommendation.


#16 of 83 by krj on Mon May 4 19:32:58 1998:

(I thought the idea was to cut back one line per month and STOP when we 
started seeing a significant busy signal problem at peak dial-in load.)


#17 of 83 by rtgreen on Tue May 5 02:49:51 1998:

If we cut back lines until we see a problem, we've cut too far, and we'll
have to pay an installation fee to bring the 'one too many' line back.
Telco will brobably charge us a generic service change fee even to cut
each line off.  Better to study the stats, and then cut what we must in
one change order.

  As for how many is enough?  I'd like to see our last modem line occupied
between 1 and 5 percent of the time.  That would mean between 15 and 75
minutes per day.  I would also like to see each instance of 'all lines
occupied' last no more than five minutes.  If both conditions are
satisfied, I would say we have exactly enough lines.


#18 of 83 by valerie on Tue May 5 23:52:25 1998:

This response has been erased.



#19 of 83 by scott on Wed May 6 10:59:07 1998:

Valerie, does the fixwait log data cover *all* connections, or just those
present when the log data is collected (every minute?)?


#20 of 83 by aruba on Wed May 6 16:26:22 1998:

I think it doesn't make financial sense to keep more lines than we need
indefinitely.  We'd all like to see more local users, and hopefully we'll get
them.  I think that if scott's data confirms that the last line or two is
never used, it makes sense to eliminate them and bring them back if and when 
we get more dialers-in.  Remember that we only have to take them down for 3
months in order to save money.

Perhaps before we act, though, we should agree to what we think is a
reasonable usage.  Then we can decide how many lines to take down and when
to put them back.  Now that I think about it, it makes a lot of sense to
decide that, and then figure out how many lines we need.


#21 of 83 by keesan on Wed May 6 16:35:42 1998:

I get the impression that many locals now get free access to something
at work that lets them telnet to grex, and that this may be an accelerating
trend.  I dial in, but hardly anyone else seems to.


#22 of 83 by robh on Wed May 6 19:21:55 1998:

I telnet in from work, but from home I dial direct.  I'd dial direct
from work, too, if it were local.  >8)


#23 of 83 by aruba on Wed May 6 19:46:16 1998:

Re #21:  Well it's clearly not true that "hardly anyone" dials in.  If it 
were, then the modem data would show that.


#24 of 83 by davel on Wed May 6 21:17:18 1998:

I have access to telnet from work, but for some reason Grex always terminates
the connection as soon as it's established.  mdw looked for, and identified
one such occasion, but found (if I recall) that as far as the logs showed it
was just a normal, albeit brief connection.  Nonetheless, I really have no
telnet access.  (I wonder if there are others out there with this problem,
who lack dialup access & so never come back.)


#25 of 83 by cmcgee on Thu May 7 14:18:43 1998:

Some of us ardent Grex supporters have always use dial-in.  The only telnet
access I have is if I'm at the library, and telnet in from their Internet
connection.


#26 of 83 by remmers on Thu May 7 19:26:00 1998:

I understand that we have to be fiscally responsible, but consider
this: Grex is on the verge of applying for 501(c)3 status as a
charitable organization. It seems to me that the dialin modem pool
service is one of the strongest claims to charitability that we
have. We are offering -- for FREE, to anyone in the local dialing
area who has a minimal computer and modem setup -- access to various
online services, including discussion forums, internet mail, and the
world wide web. And at its current level, this service in nearly
busy-signal free. This is a service available to most people only
if they pay a fee to an ISP, and we are truly performing a
charitable service to the community in making it available for
free.

So I'm uncomfortable with the sentiments I've seen expressed that
the dialins are a "luxury" that's too expensive to support. On the
contrary, they're at the heart of the kind of organization Grex is
trying to be, and is about to represent itself to the federal
government as being.

I'm with Valerie on this one. I'd prefer to see us focus on looking
for better funding for our current level of services, with a view to
increasing those services eventually, rather than getting into a
"cut services" mode of thinking.


#27 of 83 by aruba on Thu May 7 19:53:44 1998:

I don't think the phone lines are a luxury, but perhaps having phone lines
that go unused is.  I would like nothing more than to fill up those lines, but
we simply haven't increased our membership significantly in a long time, while
our costs *have* increased.  I hate being a broken record, but there it is.  I
am uncomfortable living this close to the edge of our means.

I certainly don't advocate removing phone lines permanently; I think we
should make adjustments, as time goes by, to keep the number of lines in
synch with the demand.  Right now it looks like we have more lines than
there is demand for.

If anyone wants to argue that we are (for some reason) on the verge of
increasing demand for dial-ins, then that would be a good reason to keep
extra lines.


#28 of 83 by scott on Thu May 7 20:53:55 1998:

Well, I need to get with Mike (nephi) about tweaking our Centrex trunk hunting
to make things a bit clearer from the Groupie stats.

Until we get that straigtened out, I'd say that we could definitely cut one
line immediately with no loss of service beyond maybe a couple times a week.
The stats from fixwait log indicate we aren't even using 11 of our 13 lines.


#29 of 83 by rcurl on Fri May 8 05:42:25 1998:

Re #27: we haven't really *tried* to increase our membership significantly
- also in a long time. The neglect of our dialin lines could be attributed
to the lack of our local membership efforts.  I agree with remmers - it is
a public resource - and WE have to make that resource more widely known.


#30 of 83 by scg on Fri May 8 06:16:54 1998:

I will submit, again, that dial-up lines are rapily becoming obsolete.  Yes,
there are still some people without Internet access, and it is good to have
some dial-up lines for them, but to expect our dial-up usage to grow rather
than shrink would be foolish.

Dial-up lines are a very expensive way of providing access.  If people are
choosing other ways of connecting, that's something we should be happy about.
If dial-up lines aren't being used, we should cut down to the number that are.


#31 of 83 by aruba on Fri May 8 07:32:30 1998:

Re #29:  Rane, we're always *trying* to increase our membership rates.


#32 of 83 by danr on Fri May 8 14:28:03 1998:

Dialup lines may be an expensive way of providing access, but I too
think it's an important part of our public service to provide them.
Having said that, if two of them are not being used, then I'd feel 
perfectly comfortable getting rid of one of them.  It's not as though
we can't add more later should the demand be there.

Are there any other ways, besides deleting phone lines, to save money?


#33 of 83 by remmers on Fri May 8 14:35:34 1998:

Re #30: I'm not expecting to the dialup usage to grow. But the
dialups are still a ways from being obsolete. I would oppose any
cuts that make it significantly more difficult for people to
access the system via that route, unless it is *truly* a matter
of financial exigency for us.

Dialups are certainly an expensive way of providing access.
Expensive for Grex. But cheaper for the people who use them,
since it doesn't involve their paying an ISP charge on top of their
phone bill. If we are really a charitable organization, it's the
issue of expense to the user that we should be focusing on. We
should be looking for ways to keep it as cheap as possible for people
to access our service, and serve those who cannot afford more expensive
means of access. If we're not a charitable organization, we shouldn't
be asking the IRS to subsidize us as one.


#34 of 83 by remmers on Fri May 8 14:36:34 1998:

(Dan's #32 slipped in.)


#35 of 83 by rcurl on Fri May 8 14:50:42 1998:

Re #31: OK, Mark, what are the significant membership efforts now underway
in Ann Arbor? What advertising is occurring currently in newspapers or
on TV? What direct mail to likely constituencies is in the mail now? Where
are we offering our services to the public in public venues? I could go
on....


#36 of 83 by keesan on Fri May 8 17:02:46 1998:

Rane, you sound like the perfect person to be membership chair.  I hereby
volunteer Rane to implement some of his good ideas!  I saw something go by
on a TV we were fixing at Kiwanis yesterday that appeared to be about Grex,
it may have been mid-afternoon.
        As a dial-in member, I would have no objection to paying a bit extra
for the privilege, maybe a dollar a month.  But as people keep saying, it is
hardly ever busy enough on thelines tha I have to wait.  Maybe once in
two months?  I don't imagine an extra five minute wait will be all that
discouraging to anyone, it has not been to me.  What is the total number of
paying members who use dial-in lines?  What is the total monthly cost of all
the dial-in lines?  


#37 of 83 by aruba on Fri May 8 17:50:15 1998:

Re #35:  Ah, you mean we haven't "spent money to try to increase the
number of local users on Grex".  I agree that we haven't done much of
that.  (The free ad Misti got us on cable channel 11 is great, however.) 
We did spend a little on advertising last year.  We haven't done more
because we can't seem to agree on which advertising is worth doing (though
at the budget meeting in February we agreed that advertising was third on
our list of priorities).  If you think some of those ideas you mentioned
are worth spending money on, how about pushing for them in the item about
getting more members?  Or, as keesan said, become our membership chair?  I
think that would be great. 

But getting more people to log on is only the first stage of the process -
you also have to convince more users to become members.  I took affront at
your saying that we haven't tried to get more members, because I try to do
that all the time - every time someone sends me a query about it.  It
hasn't seemed to do a whole lot of good - most such people seem to think
of Grex as a cheap ISP, and don't have the concept of contributing to a
charity.  But maybe not doing it would make things worse, I don't know. 

We did agree at the last board meeting that we will try sending out mail
to nonmembers on their 3-month, 6-month, etc. anniversaries.  However
doing that requires some programming on Jan and Valerie's part, and I'm
not sure how soon it'll happen.

Perhaps what you meant, Rane, is that we are not reaching enough people
with our appeals to log in to Grex and to become members.  And perhaps you
meant that we haven't tried *enough*.  With those statements I agree.


#38 of 83 by aruba on Fri May 8 17:54:36 1998:

Re #36:  Sindi, you are quite welcome to include an extra donation with your 
dues, it will be appreciated.  But I don't think we want to get into the
pattern of charging different dues according to what services people use; that
amounts to selling service, and I don't want us to go down that road.

When I last calculated it, the cost of our phone lines was $18.46 per line
per month.  So the total cost of our dialins is 13 X $18.46 = $239.98.


#39 of 83 by keesan on Fri May 8 18:00:11 1998:

How many paying members (and how many total users) would you estimate use the
dial in lines regularly?  If you divide $240 by that number, I would consider
it fair to pay the result as an extra donation, per year.  Perhaps some
nonmembers who dial in regularly would also be willing to pay something
towards the phone cost, you could at least ask them to consider it.


#40 of 83 by aruba on Fri May 8 18:00:15 1998:

BTW I agree with remmers' argument that providing dialups is consistent with
our charitable mission.  We are not in business to make money, so I don't
believe we should be trying to push our users into doing what we want (as scg
said), but rather we should adapt to what they need.

I also agree that I don't want to cut dialin service to the point where it
is "significantly harder to dial in".  I'd like to see us decide what
"significantly harder" means, numerically.  Then we'd have a basis for
deciding how many lines we need.


#41 of 83 by aruba on Fri May 8 18:11:33 1998:

(keesan slipped in at #39)  69 of our current members live within a local call
of Grex.  But everytime imply that being local and dialing in are related, scg
takes me to task, since it's certain that some locals telnet in.

I think remmers is right, and we should think of providing dialins as a
charitable service.  If we start asking people to pay according to what they
use, then we are selling service, plain and simple.  Let's not go there.


#42 of 83 by rcurl on Fri May 8 18:41:06 1998:

I dial in when the internet link is down. Haven't gotten a busy signal
even then, for a long time. 

I am already "maxed out" on volunteer activities - indeed some tend
to languish already. But surely there is someone with time and interest
and they are free to use any ideas that go their way - from me or anyone
else. 

OK, Mark - we haven't tried *enough*. 


#43 of 83 by keesan on Fri May 8 18:43:59 1998:

Misti seems to be doing a lot towards recruiting new members.  I wonder if
she would like an official title.  Or simply thanks for a good job.
I don't think anyone would object to stating how many dollars per year it
costs, per dial-in user, to pay for the dial in lines, and suggesting that
users might want to contribute a bit extra.


#44 of 83 by aruba on Fri May 8 19:19:28 1998:

*I* object to that.  It amounts to guilt-tripping the people who are already
being very generous in supporting Grex.

It's not like our financial situation is hidden from anyone.  I post it
every month.  (Not that anyone notices, mind you.  ;))


#45 of 83 by aruba on Fri May 8 19:22:55 1998:

Re #43,44:  I assumed in #44 that keesan meant stating the costs of dial-ins
in the reminders I send to people when their memberships are due.  Now that I
reread her response, I'm not sure that's what she meant.


#46 of 83 by keesan on Fri May 8 20:08:58 1998:

I'm not quite sure what I meant, either, but would it be possible to ask those
people who are not paying members, but who dial in, to contribute at least
a bit towards maintaining the phone lines, if not $60/year?  Presumably it
is not just paying members who benefit from the phone lines, and those who
use the phone lines infrequently may appreciate being able to help in this
way, without paying for full membership.


#47 of 83 by dpc on Sat May 9 01:58:09 1998:

I agree with remmers et al. about dialins being an essential part of
what Grex is.


#48 of 83 by mdw on Sat May 9 04:01:48 1998:

Actually, I wonder if C. Keesan would make a good membership chairman?


#49 of 83 by keesan on Sat May 9 22:29:20 1998:

Thank you for your interest, but we will concentrate for the meantime on
getting our Kiwanis electronics department, where we have been volunteering
20 or more hours/week, under control, and then attempt to sell computers
set up to access grex, 'for dummies'.  Misti was in today, and suggested
handing out a grex brochure to everyone who bought a computer, but nobody
has been buying any recently because they are not organized yet.  When Jim
gets his one-key disk perfected, we will run ads in the Freebies.


#50 of 83 by aruba on Sun May 10 05:12:21 1998:

It seems that everyone wants to volunteer someone else to be membership
chair...


#51 of 83 by keesan on Sun May 10 16:03:39 1998:

Maybe we don't need a 'membership chair', just various people working in
various ways to encourage or help other people to join, such as by posting
ideas in coop that other people feel they can follow up on.


#52 of 83 by srw on Sun May 10 16:43:11 1998:

I agree with Remmers and Valerie about this.

While I support saving $40 by dropping the ICnet link, I do not support 
dropping the count on the local dialups yet. I expect usage to grow 
there, not shrink.

Furthermore, we may be adding limited IP service by dialup in the near 
future. This would induce higher dialup usage. If we can really 
anticipate continued non-use of some dialup lines for multiple months, I 
would certainly acquiesce, but I am not yet convinced.


#53 of 83 by other on Sun May 10 16:51:10 1998:

i am a frequent grexer, and i use dialup access at least 75% of the time.
I have never been informed of all lines being full.

Given Grex's stated purpose of providing access for the 'have-nots,'
eliminating dialup access would be completely counterproductive.  Assuming
that potential users will already have net access by which to telnet here
would be unrealistically optimistic.

I used Grex on and off for about four years before having any other net access
i could use from home.


#54 of 83 by aruba on Sun May 10 19:24:36 1998:

Once again, no one is proposing eliminating dial-up usage.  I just think we
should have the right number of modems to fit the demand for them, and that 
means we should be willing to adjust downward as well as upward.

It's not the end of the world, folks, to drop a few lines.  It's not as if
we were laying people off or anything.  :)

Steve, are we really going to add PPP dialup service in the next 3 months?
If so, that's the best reason I've heard so far for keeping extra lines.


#55 of 83 by janc on Mon May 11 19:05:59 1998:

I'll put PPP-dialup service on the (imaginary) agenda for Wednesday's Grex
staff meeting.  I'll report back after that meeting on how long it will take
us to bring up PPP-service and what the obstacles are.  My un-informed guess
is that it can be done quickly and easily.  If this is true, then maybe we
should be keeping all the dial-ins.  If not, I agree that dropping a phone
line that isn't being used DOES NOT mean that Grex isn't dedicated to
maintaining good quality dial-up access in the Ann Arbor area.  I absolutely
believe that dialup access should be a high priority here, but I don't think
that means we need to make charitable donations to Ameritech.


#56 of 83 by scg on Mon May 11 21:53:56 1998:

If we drop a few lines that aren't being used, it will save money that can
then be spent on things that will be used.


#57 of 83 by keesan on Tue May 12 00:16:09 1998:

$240 per year per phone line requires  4 paying members per line.  Did you
say there were 15 lines?  That would be over half the membership dues just
for phone lines, not a negligible expense.  Must be a lot of extra donations
in addition to membership dues keeping grex afloat.


#58 of 83 by scott on Tue May 12 10:45:21 1998:

There is 13 dialin lines.  We have lines into the Pumpkin also for the ICnet
link and for a staff line.


#59 of 83 by keesan on Tue May 12 16:26:48 1998:

Would it help at all to put something in the motd (or somewhere that only
dialin users would see it) explaining how much it costs to keep all the phone
lines in service, and that we would appreciate donations, especially from
dial-in users who are not members, toward the phone costs?  How many nonpaying
users use the dialin lines?


#60 of 83 by dang on Tue May 12 18:14:25 1998:

There's no way of knowing, especially now that we are on the terminal server.

Hey Mark, re way up there, I notice that you post the expenses.  I even read
it, after I link it co coop. :)



#61 of 83 by scg on Tue May 12 20:09:47 1998:

We can still tell who is coming in on dial-up lines, because we can tell who
connects to Grex from the terminal server.

I really hope we don't get into raising money by guilt tripping people.  Doing
things to reduce the quality of service aren't good either.  But, if we have
dial-up lines that aren't being used, it doesn't make sense to keep paying
for them while complaining about not having enough money for stuff we are
going to use.


#62 of 83 by mta on Wed May 13 21:13:17 1998:

I don't think anyone said the need was critical -- just that we should start
lloking at options -- unused "stuff" is the obvious first step.  If I could
see a possibility of a sudden influx of new dialins, I'd be against cutting
lines right now -- but we don't have any plans that I know of that are likely
toresult in a sudden influx of new dialins...


#63 of 83 by janc on Thu May 14 05:11:54 1998:

I'm going to enter a separate item about PPP connections on dial ups.  Mostly
this seems very feasible to do in the short range.


#64 of 83 by rtgreen on Thu May 14 05:38:36 1998:

I remember hearing somewhere that 8 users per dialup line is a ratio that
the commercial services consider excellent service.  A few responses ago,
I read a figure of four paying members for each of our lines.  How can we
determine how many local non-member users there are as well?  Since our
purpose is to serve all the users, not just the members, we need to know
how many locals we need to plan for.
  I'm not adept at unix utilities, but is there someone more skilled who
can do something like this?:
1) grep the logfiles (a month or more) for the IP address(es) of the
terminal server
2) parse out the userid.
3) sort.
4) eliminate duplicate lines
5) count lines.

Do this for each individual month for the past year.  Project the trend
out 3 months, 6 months.  Divide the 3 month projection by 8.  If less than
13, we might save money without apparently reducing service by suspending
some phone lines.  If we will need those lines within three months, we'd
be better off keeping them.  If we won't need those lines for 6, or even 9
months, we'll save some real dollars to spend on outreach, so we can build
our user base and bring the lines back sooner! 


#65 of 83 by aruba on Sun May 17 23:26:46 1998:

Re #57: Sindi, you're a little off on your numbers.  Type "only 1;only 38"
at the next prompt to see the ones I calculated.  No, the phone lines are
definitely *not* a negligible expense.  If you want more information on
the level of Grex's donations, see the recent treasurer's reports.  They're
all collected in ~aruba/reports, and there's also a file called 501c3 there
which summarizes our financial activity over the past 3.25 years.


#66 of 83 by janc on Sat Jul 18 19:58:22 1998:

I wrote a program that generated stats on how many dialup lines are being
used.  This works with Grex's wtmp log, so in theory it should be exactly
accurate, unlike statistics based on polling.  In practice, there are possible
problems due to glitches in the log files and perhaps bugs in the program.

of the four months I collected data on, I think the first two are accurate.
There are fourteen modems, so the number of dial-in users is always between
zero and fourteen.  The following tables show, for each possible number of
users, what percentage of the time exactly that number of users was logged
on to Grex.

                Apr 1998
        USERS     HOURS     PERCENT
          0:      46.20      6.42%
          1:      90.69     12.61%
          2:     124.13     17.26%
          3:     118.71     16.51%
          4:     105.02     14.60%
          5:      78.97     10.98%
          6:      59.68      8.30%
          7:      41.99      5.84%
          8:      26.79      3.72%
          9:      12.99      1.80%
         10:       7.35      1.02%
         11:       3.41       .47%
         12:       1.94       .26%
         13:       1.06       .14%
         14:       0.00       .00%
        TOTAL:   718.93    100.00%

                May 1998
        USERS     HOURS     PERCENT
          0:      49.47       6.64%
          1:     104.21      14.00%
          2:     134.36      18.05%
          3:     132.46      17.80%
          4:     107.02      14.38%
          5:      76.91      10.33%
          6:      57.19       7.68%
          7:      35.92       4.82%
          8:      21.02       2.82%
          9:      13.69       1.84%
         10:       6.09        .81%
         11:       2.32        .31%
         12:       1.90        .25%
         13:       1.24        .16%
         14:       0.19        .02%
        TOTAL:   743.99     100.00%

Note that users would only get a busy tone when dialing Grex if there are
14 users already dialed into Grex.  This data suggests that that happened
for a total of 12 minutes over the two months of April and May.

There is a glitch in the log file sometime in the middle of June, including
some null entries and some other bad stuff.  It causes my program to complain
bitterly, but it manages to recover and run onward.  However, I believe that
it loses a log-out record somewhere in there, or more likely picks up a
bogus login, so it thinks a user has been dialed in continuously from sometime
in the middle of June to the present.  That's why the period of time with
zero users is low in the June report, and zero in the July report:

                June 1998
        USERS     HOURS     PERCENT
          0:      29.61      4.11%
          1:      98.83     13.72%
          2:     124.26     17.25%
          3:     117.72     16.35%
          4:     103.58     14.38%
          5:      87.68     12.17%
          6:      70.20      9.75%
          7:      41.35      5.74%
          8:      22.72      3.15%
          9:      12.19      1.69%
         10:       6.36       .88%
         11:       3.45       .47%
         12:       1.33       .18%
         13:       0.62       .08%
         14:       0.06       .00%
        TOTAL    719.96    100.00%

July 1998 through Sat Jul 18 15:06:47 EDT 1998
         USERS    HOURS     PERCENT
          0:       0.00       .00%
          1:      33.48      7.91%
          2:      57.31     13.54%
          3:      56.05     13.24%
          4:      53.06     12.54%
          5:      52.33     12.36%
          6:      51.68     12.21%
          7:      42.44     10.03%
          8:      32.01      7.56%
          9:      21.92      5.18%
         10:      12.41      2.93%
         11:       5.66      1.33%
         12:       2.75       .64%
         13:       1.41       .33%
         14:       0.58       .13%
        TOTAL:   423.09    100.00%

If my theory about what messed these up is rignt, then we can fix the July
report by shifting it up one row:

Corrected? July 1998 through Sat Jul 18 15:06:47 EDT 1998
         USERS    HOURS     PERCENT
          0:      33.48      7.91%
          1:      57.31     13.54%
          2:      56.05     13.24%
          3:      53.06     12.54%
          4:      52.33     12.36%
          5:      51.68     12.21%
          6:      42.44     10.03%
          7:      32.01      7.56%
          8:      21.92      5.18%
          9:      12.41      2.93%
         10:       5.66      1.33%
         11:       2.75       .64%
         12:       1.41       .33%
         13:       0.58       .13%
         14:       0.00       .00%
        TOTAL:   423.09    100.00%


#67 of 83 by janc on Sat Jul 18 19:59:11 1998:

My conclusion from this is that one phone line would never be missed, even
if dial-up usage increases significantly.


#68 of 83 by mta on Sat Jul 18 20:34:36 1998:

Thanks, Jan!

It looks like we might even be able to go up to 3 lines without significant
impact if we had to...


#69 of 83 by scott on Sat Jul 18 21:01:55 1998:

Thanks, Jan.  This supports my own feel for the situation, for which 
hard stats were lacking.


#70 of 83 by scg on Sat Jul 18 21:24:42 1998:

Thanks, Jan.


#71 of 83 by aruba on Sat Jul 18 22:18:33 1998:

Thanks, Jan.  There's something wrong, though, because unless I'm behind
the times we only have 13 dial-in modems, not 14.  (We have 15 total: the
dial-ins plus the staff line (7541) and the link modem (8228) which until
recently dialed out to ICNET.)  Could it be that you're counting logins on
the console as if they were people dialed in? 



#72 of 83 by scg on Sun Jul 19 02:33:17 1998:

Or am I perhaps the 14th dial-in user, since I usually come in from Gryps?


#73 of 83 by scott on Sun Jul 19 02:38:31 1998:

Could be the staff line.  I do know that STeve Andre' uses it a fair amount.


#74 of 83 by janc on Sun Jul 19 16:38:22 1998:

It is looking for telnet connections from the terminal server, so gryps and
the console wouldn't count, but the staff line would.

Hmmm...It's hard to check this code, because there is just so *much* data.
I'll try a few more things.  I should be able to make it printout out a snap
shot of who is on each time the load goes above, say, 12.


#75 of 83 by janc on Sun Jul 19 17:13:46 1998:

OK, I did a little more checking.  Here's two snapshots from March showing
14 dialin users on Grex:

--USER-- --LINE-- ------HOST------ ---------SINCE----------
monamoor    ttyrf   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 22:26:50 1998
  cmcgee    ttypc   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 20:59:50 1998
 orinoco    ttyt3   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 22:10:58 1998
    snow    ttyt4   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 22:07:00 1998
 illogic    ttyrc   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 22:26:15 1998
     bye    ttyt0   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 22:27:12 1998
  sprice    ttyqc   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 22:10:34 1998
  tpryan    ttyq6   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 20:36:11 1998
    sixx    ttyq3   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 22:27:18 1998
   steve    ttys9   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 20:59:54 1998
   n8rxs    ttyp1   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 20:14:35 1998
  gibson    ttypb   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 21:18:08 1998
noreturn    ttyp7   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 21:26:52 1998
     mjg    ttyr2   204.212.46.131 Mon Mar 23 22:16:58 1998

--USER-- --LINE-- ------HOST------ --------SINCE-----------
    omni    ttys6   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 21:41:53 1998
 mcnally    ttyte   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 21:40:02 1998
    robh    ttysd   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 21:23:29 1998
 deigert    ttyr7   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 22:06:50 1998
  sekari    ttyq9   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 22:10:34 1998
   n8rxs    ttytd   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 21:09:21 1998
  cmcgee    ttyr3   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 21:43:24 1998
    kami    ttys5   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 21:23:55 1998
  beamer    ttys0   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 21:49:17 1998
  gibson    ttyre   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 22:13:50 1998
   steve    ttyrf   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 22:14:08 1998
 orinoco    ttyr1   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 21:47:13 1998
   n8nxf    ttypa   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 21:43:37 1998
   raven    ttyq5   204.212.46.131 Thu Mar 26 20:43:25 1998

Every 14-user snapshot I've seen has "steve" in it, who is, I believe, the
most frequent user of the staff dial-in line.  I don't know of any way to
factor the staff line out of this data.  It isn't distinguishable from
anything in the wtmp log.

So basically we should consider Grex full at 13 lines, not 14 as I said before.
It's possible that at 13 lines, the staff line is in use, so there still is
one free public dial-in, but it's also possible that all lines are in use.


#76 of 83 by janc on Sun Jul 19 17:16:20 1998:

So it looks like Grex's lines fill up for something a bit under an hour a
month, around a tenth of a percent of the time.


#77 of 83 by janc on Sun Jul 19 17:20:57 1998:

Hmmm - I'd be tempted to suggest eliminating the staff line - except it also
doubles as a voice line for the pumpkin, something we do kind of need.


#78 of 83 by other on Sun Jul 19 17:34:22 1998:

i would not eliminate the staff line.  if it can be used for remote rebooting,
or other service to grex then kkeping it outweighs its cost.


#79 of 83 by scott on Sun Jul 19 18:23:57 1998:

The staff line isn't hardwired into Grex, either.  It's possible to connect
to Gryps, too.


#80 of 83 by aruba on Sun Jul 19 18:58:03 1998:

Ah, I didn't even know the staff line had a modem on it - I thought it was
just for voice calls.  But now that you mention it, I do remember the debate
about how the staff needs to be able to dial in when the internet connection
is hosed.


#81 of 83 by scg on Mon Jul 20 06:41:57 1998:

If steve always uses the staff line, and nobody else does at all regularly,
could the stats just be run in a way that wouldn't count steve?


#82 of 83 by dpc on Mon Jul 20 20:24:29 1998:

Any way your slice this *very* nice data, we could cut 3 lines and rarely
cause any busy signals.


#83 of 83 by rtgreen on Mon Jul 20 23:04:56 1998:

that would depend on your definition of 'rarely'.  Jan, I hate to be the
one to keep asking for a few more lines of code, but would it be possible
to list incidents of high utilization in detail?  As the count increases
from 11 to 12, note the timestamp.  As the count decreases from 12 to 11,
output a record showing begin, end times and duration.  This, IMO, will
show us a better picture of the impact of an 11-line configuration: The
maximum time a user would be waiting (or attack-dialing) to get in during
the peak usage.  Is that three hours/month in one peak?  (unacceptable, in
my opinion to ever have to wait that long for a connection) or 6 minutes,
once a day (probably manageable)?

 Realize also, that we want to serve all the users, so that we won't
simply clip the peaks off the curve.  Instead, we will extend the duration
a/o frequency of peaks at 11 so that the area under the curve is constant.
This means that the times a user will get a busy with 11 lines available
is greater than the amount of time we see '11 or more' lines in use today.


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