The United States, er, U.N., has taken action and shot down 4 yugoslavian
fighter bombers that attacked a reported munitions factory within the 
no-fly zone.   

2 F-16's fired four Aim-9l's and 1 amraam in the incident.  The Yugoslavian
aircraft did not attempt to engage the F-16's and had ignored repeated 
warnings to land or be fired upon.

30 responses total.

Link to Worldnews?  (I don't know how... )-:

I wasn't aware Serbia was still calling itself Yugoslavia.

   Perhaps the UN will be seen as something other than
completely inefectual, now.  I think it was a good move.

No, that was Nato, not the UN.  Though Nato was operating under UN
Security Council authorization from April '93.  

 consider it linked.

 agora 90=world 22

There appears to be some question whether the planes were Serbian or
Croatian.

The news reports I saw indicated no such equivocation. They were Serbian.
The loss of 4 planes represents the loss of 20% of the Serbian fixed-wing
air force. The Nato people said they tried to avoid being shot by flying
within 100 feet of the ground, and that they showed no air-to-air
combat skills.

They were shot down while bombing a factory in a Bosnian town.
they had been warned multiple times.

While driving home from work tonight, on NPR, I heard that the Serbians
had denied that the planes were theirs, and had asked that UN observers
verify that these planes had not taken off from their airport.  The
report also said that the Croatians had similar planes.

I got my story from ABC news.

I think it also said that the Serbs pointed out that the area where the
incident occurred was not one in which they have been showing any great
interest.

Note that I'm going on one news report, not a terribly strong basis of
evidence.

ABC said that the factory that the planes were bombing had not been bombed
before but had been shelled by Serbian guns. I have only listened to one
news source too. 

The Detroit News report said that Nato had not Identified the planes
and that Serbia had denied that they were theirs.  I think it said tat 
that it was thought that they might belong to the Bosnian Serbs.

( Why this restriction to "fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters"? Is it then
  not ok to shoot down *floppy-winged* aircraft? What a loophole, huh? )

Yeh, you'da thought we had learned something from the finesseing we
got fromthat Iraqi Zit.
 
Anyway, even at this hour, there has not been any positive identification
as to thje source of the downed, fixed-wingy-thingies.
  
However, they won't fly again, which is the point. 
  
Yes, it is a NATO action, and I agree it was an unfortunate, but
good thing to do. Also, Bout Damned Time!

 There are two types of aircraft, rotary wing (helicoptors and fixed
wing which are not helicopters)

The following quote is from this mornings NY Times:

"Although the Bosnian Serbs denied that the airplanes were theirs,
American officials said the the Jastreb planes, which are designed for a
light ground-attack role, are of a type that is owned only by the Bosnian
Serbs, Serbian forces in Croatia, and by the Serbian government in
Belgrade. 

No one is arguing that these were not Jastrebs.

Re 2.  Yes, Serbia and Montenegro still call themselves the Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).

The other four republics (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and
Macedonia) have all declared their independence and been recognized
by most or all other countries and international organizations.

Ethnic Albanians in the (formerly) autonomous province of Kosovo, in
Serbia, have also declared independence.  However, they have not taken
any steps to implement this.  (Kosovo is widely regarded as the possible
fuse for World War III.)

Could you elaborate on this Kosovo/fuse thoery?

Re 19.  Certainly.

Back when Yugoslavia was still all together, it consisted of six
republics, each of which played a major role in national politics;
there were also the two "autonomous provinces" of Serbia which
functioned as if they were separate republics for most purposes.
One was Vojvodina, with a mixed Serb-Hungarian population; and
the other Kosovo, which is about 90% ethnic Albanians and 10% Serbs.

Note that Albanians are Muslims, but they are ethnically and
culturally quite distinct from the Bosnian Muslims.  Albania itself
was an extremely rigid Communist dictatorship for decades, until
just recently.  Kosovo adjoins Albania, and received many refugees
or immigrants from Albania.  The percentage of ethnic Albanians in
Kosovo has been rising very gradually over a long period of time as
Albanians have arrived and Serbs have left.

Though relatively few ethnic Serbs live in Kosovo, the province is
cherished by Serbian nationalists as the site of a battle against
the Ottoman Empire in 1389.  (Yup, six hundred years ago.)  The
Serbs lost the battle, but it is seen as a kind of definining event
for Serbian nationalism.

Slobodan Milosevic, the Serbian strongman, was a Communist at a
time when Communism was discredited and falling apart.  He abruptly
became an extreme Serbian nationalist, and came to prominence by
his denunciation of what he claimed were atrocities against Serbs
committed by the Kosovo Albanians.

When Milosevic came to power in Serbia, he announced he could no
longer tolerate the existence of the "autonomous provinces," and
sent troops to shut down their governments.  In Kosovo, this also
meant firing all the Albanian civil servants, shutting down all
Albanian-language media and schools, and putting the province
under martial law.  In response, the Albanians declared Kosovo
to be independent of Serbia, but have taken no steps to put this
into effect.

This all happened before the war started.  From that day to this,
the situation in Kosovo has been extremely tense.  Human rights
groups such as Amnesty International have denounced this state of
affairs; reports of Albanians being beaten or killed by troops for
no apparent reason have been frequent.  The idea, I think, is to
provoke a revenge incident which would provide a pretext for
massive government retaliation against the Albanians.

For much of the last two years, it has been very widely expected
(among diplomats, government leaders, reporters, commentators
both outside and inside former Yugoslavia) that as soon as the
Serbs were finished with ethnic cleansing in Bosnia, their next
goal would be to expel the several million ethnic Albanians from
Kosovo.  The logic of Serbian nationalism would seem to dictate
this: Bosnia was never part of Serbia, but Kosovo is seen as the
absolute heart of the Serb nation.  The Serbian Radical Party (the
second largest bloc in Serbian politics, and led by accused war
criminal Vojislav Seselj) has openly called for this.

World leaders may not have been especially bothered by the
genocide in Bosnia, but they are absolutely terrified by the
possibility that it would take place in Kosovo.  For one thing,
it is an absolute certainty that Albania (the country) would get
involved, to defend its ethnic brethren in Kosovo.  To the south,
Macedonia, with a substantial ethnic Albanian minority, would
inevitably become flooded with Albanian refugees, and become a
base for Albanian fighters against Serbia.

Macedonia itself is in a very delicate position, surrounded on all
sides by potential threats: Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria and Albania.

     - Greece is hostile because Macedonia's existence threatens to
       undermine the legitimacy of its annexation of "Greek Macedonia"
       in the 1920's, and the subsequent brutal suppression and
       expulsion of its Slavic population (most of whom went to Bulgaria,
       and help stoke Bulgarian-Greek hostility).

     - Bulgaria feels that Macedonia (including both the Republic of
       Macedonia and the Greek province) are rightfully Bulgarian.
       Unfortunately for the Bulgarians, they chose the losing side in
       both World Wars; the brutal Bulgarian/Nazi regime in what is
       now the Republic of Macedonia killed any desire there to come
       under Bulgarian rule.

     - Though ethnic Albanian parties are in the governing coalition in
       Macedonia, there have been a few violent incidents, and some
       Albanians advocate that western Macedonia be annexed to
       Albania.  The Albanian government has given credence to this
       demand.

     - Serbia has shown its current propensity to engage in brutal
       warfare against non-Serbs.  Though Macedonia was allowed to
       become independent without incident, the Serbian Radical Party
       and others have advocated an invasion.  Last year rumors swept
       through diplomatic circles of an alleged "deal" between Serbia
       and Greece to invade and divide Macedonia, much as Hitler and
       Stalin did with Poland.  In the meantime, Belgrade frequently
       accuses Macedonia of mistreating its (tiny) Serbian minority,
       in tones similar to its comments about the Bosnian government. 

     - Turkey, arch-enemy of Greece, is allied with Muslim Albania
       and Greece-hating Bulgaria.  Turkish leaders have warned that
       if any war broke out over Macedonia, Turkey would have no choice
       but to intervene.

A war involving all these parties would shatter the stability of
Europe.

For these reasons, Western leaders have been far more resolute on
the issue of Kosovo than on Bosnia.  In a position which was little
noticed inside the U.S., George Bush warned Milosevic that the U.S.
_would_immediately_intervene_militarily_ if war or "ethnic cleansing"
broke out in Kosovo.  (In very marked contrast to his equivocation,
denial, and soft words in relation to Bosnia.)  When Bill Clinton was
elected, he emphasized that Bush's threat on Kosovo would continue.
To back up this threat, U.S. ground troops were sent to Macedonia,
where they are stationed along the border with Serbia.

In the meantime, a lot of diplomatic pressure has been put on both
the Albanian government and the Kosovo-government-in-exile (in
Albania) to keep things cool and hopefully prevent any incidents
which the Serbs could take as a provocation for large-scale attacks.

I'd say this combination of threats, diplomatic pressure, and
intense uneasiness about the southern Balkan powder keg has been
successful in keeping the situation under control.  Here it is
nearly spring of 1994, and no ethnic cleansing has happened in
Kosovo.  Macedonia is still stable and peaceful.  The war remains
confined to Bosnia and (sometimes) parts of Croatia.

That's probably more than you wanted to know.

I'm confused about some of the above, but just one coherent question comes
to mind so far:  Greece and Turkey are arch enemies and likely to
accelerate the war which may break out in the region.  Greece and Turkey
are both members of NATO.  How were both brought into NATO?  How do NATO
obligations fit into the tangled mess in Eastern Europe? 

Also, in regard to the placement of U.S. troops on the Macedonian side of the
border with Serbia, was this what was done under the heading of "efforts to
contain and restrict the violence to it's current participants and regions?"
In other words, I had heard that there was to be some move to try to limit the
spread of the upheaval in Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Was that it, or a part of it?

        Second kaplan's Q's above  Additionally, how do you suspect that an 
outbreak of military action between members of NATO will affect the
organization as a whole, not only in terms of it's effectiveness as a force in
world politics, but in terms of the security of it's remaining members.  And
what obligations does NATO have to member nations whose forces are engaged in
combat against each other, on the territory of a non-member nation? (Should
such an event occur, as you propose.)

Re#20- Are you in some sort of college class on Serbia??? (Perhaps Serbian
Military Leaders & Politicians and their Relationships with Neighboring
Countries?)

You know, it all sounds pretty stupid to me.  In this corner, four planes of
ancient design with lousy weaponry sytems and a top speed of about 550mph.  In
this corner, the reigning champions of tag-team dogfighting, 2 American F-16s
with Air-Air and Air-Ground missile systems, highly trained pilots, and speeds
of over 1000mph.  Let's go live to the scene of the action...
Well Bill, the Serbians have been warned several times to leave the no-fly 
zone.  Oh, wait!  The F-16s are firing!  One!  Two!  Three!  Four!  All of the 
Serbians have been hit
!  No parachutes are opening!  Now, back to Bill, for local news and weather...

Sort of an IQ test for the enemy pilots.  For every time you are warned by 
superior planes to leave or be shot down and you decline, your IQ is proven to
be 20 points lower.

Re 21 & 22 - Both Greece and Turkey almost certainly joined NATO
to have a military treaty invloving the US, Great Britain, and all
the other countries involved.  Greece being fairly small, and Turkey
being right next to the Middle East (and adjacent to Iraq, no less!),
they need all the help they can get.  I would love to know what the
Treaty says about two members attacking each other, though.

re#20, wow!

        "There's always trouble in the Balkans in the spring." 
                -- Rudyard Kipling, somewhere.

Re 23.  I have been following the situation in the former Yugoslavia
very closely since a year before the war started.  I'm on several e-mail
mailing lists which provide detailed reports from different points of
view.

Unconfirmed news reports say Serbian planes have bombed Maglaj.  (Another
gross violation of the no-fly zone.)

sick, sick, sick, sick, sick, sick, sick, sick, sick, sick, sick, sick, sick,
sick, sick, sick, sick, sick, sick, sick.

jamie, let's be a little more precise (re #23), their IQ's drop
six feet under, gravity assisted. 
 
Btw, nice piece of writing other than that. 
  
Somebody forgot to mention (re NATO) that both Greece and Turkey
lived in the dark shadow of the Soviets (the old soviets) from
just after WWII until +very+ recently. NATO is (roughly) the
mutual self-defense pact aginst the Russian Bear, so, mutual
enemies aided by the backingof the US became military allies
and also had to forego provoking each otherif they wanted the
NATO pact to stick together. 
  
Fwiw, there were some tough years vis-a-vis NATO, Greece and Turkey
anyway.
.

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