I've been rereading a lot of my Heinlein lately.  One thing that I'd never
noticed before is his tendency to use the name "Mike" for his "spock"
character.  (I read Moon is a Harsh Mistress and Stranger in a Strange Land
back to back.)  So, any idea why "Mike"?

Also came across a predictive essay written in 1952 that seems to have been
more on target than I would have believed possible.  He touches on everything
from the microwave oven to the fall of the Soviet Union.  I'll be entering
bits of that later for your amusement and edification.

56 responses total.

*That* I would like to see.

As I war, um, threa, um ... As I promised, here are a few " free-swinging
predictions about the future" as written by Robert Heinlein, under durress,
in 1952.

1. Interplanetary travel is waiting at your front door -- C.O.D. It's your
when you pay for it. (a)

2. Contraception and cotrol of disease is revising relatios between sexes to
an extent that will change our entire social and economic structure. (b)

3. The most important military fact of this cetury will be hat there is no
way to repel an attack from outer space. (c)

4. It is utterly impossible that the US will start a "preventive war".  We
will fight when attached, either directly or in a territory we have guaranteed
to defend. (d)

5. In fifteen years (1967) the housing shortage will be solved by a
breakthrough into new technology which will make every house now standing as
obsolete as privies.

6. We'll all be getting a little hungry by and by. 

7. The cult of the phony in art will disappear.  So-called "modern art" will
be discussed only by psychiatrists.

8. Frued will be classed as a pre-scientific intuitive pioneer and
psychoanalysis will be replaced by a growing, changing, "operational
psychology" based on measurement and pediction.

9. Cancer, the common cold, and tooth decay will all be conquered; the
revolutionary new problem in medical research will be to accomplish
"regeneration", ie, to enable a man to grow a new leg rather than fit him with
an artificial limb. (f)

10. By the end of this century mankind will have explored this solar system
and the first ship intended to reach the nearest star will be abuilding. (g)

11.  Your personal telephone will be small enough to carry in your handbag.
Your house telephone will record messages, answer simple queries, and transmit
vision.

12. Intelligent life will be found on Mars.

13. A thousanfd miles an hour at a cent a mile will be commonplace; short
hauls will bemade in evacuated subways at extreme speeds. (i)

14. A major objective of applied physics will be to control gravity. (j)

15. We will not achieve a "world state" in the predictable future. 
Never-the-less, Communism will vanish from this planet. (k)

16. Increasing mobility will disenfranchise a majority of the population. 
About 1990 a constitutional amendment will do away with state lines while
retaining the semblance.

17. All aircraft will be controlled by a giant radar net run on a continent
wide basis by a multiple electronic "brain".

18. Fish and yeast will becoem our principal sources of proteins.  Beef will
be a luxury.  Lamb and mutton will disappear. (l)

19. Mankind will *not* destroy itself, nor will :civilization" be destroyed.
(m)


These are some things that we won't get soon, if ever:
        * Travel through time
        * Travel faster than the speed of light
        * "Radio" transmissio of matter
        * Manlike robots with manlike reactions
        * Laboratory creation of life
        * Real understanding of what "thought" is and how it's related to
          matter.
        * Scientific proof of personal survival after death
        * Nor a permanent end to war.  (I don't like that prediction any better
          than you do.)

This is from an essay called Pandora's Box, first published as "Where To? in
a 1952 issue of Galaxy Magazine and later published as Pandora's Box in a
1962edition of a collection of stories called The Worlds of Robert A.
Heinlein published by Ace Books.  In the essay Heinlein also mentions what
sounds like a microwave oven, one way glass, a self cleaning house, "massaging
couches", and lots of other stuff.  The letters following some of the
predictions refer to comments he made about those 1952 predictions from the
vanatge point of 1966.  

I'll enter those later.

This is from a section of the essay called "Afterthoughts, Fifteen Years Later
--" written in 1967.

a) And now we'ew paying for (space flight) and the cost is high.  But for
reasons understandable only to bureauctrats, we have almost halted development
of a nulclear-powered spacecraft when success was in sight.  Never mind; if
we don't, another country will.  By the end of this century space travel will
be cheap.

b) The (changes in society due to the control of disease and fertility) is
so much more evident now than it was fifteen years ago that I'm tempted to
call it a fulfilled prophecy.  Vast changes in sex realtions are evident all
around us -- with the oldsters calling it "moral decay" and the youngsters
ignoring them and taking it for granted.  Surface signs: books such as Sex
and the Single Girl are smash hits; the formerly taboo four letter words are
now seen both in novels and in popular magazines; the neologism "swinger" has
come into the language; courts are conceding that nudity and semi-nudity are
now parts of the mores.  But the end is not yet; this revolution will go much
further and is now barely started.

<snip>

c) I flatly stand by this one.  True, we are now working on Nike-Zeus and
Nike-X and related systems and plan to spend billions on such systems -- and
we  know that others are doing the same thing.  True, it is possible to hit
an object in orbit or trajectory.  Nevertheless this prediction is as safe
as predicting tomorrow's sunrise.  Anti-aircraft fire never stopped air
attacks; it simply made them expensive.  The disadvantage in being at the
bottom of a deep "gravity well" is very great; gravity guage will be as
crucial in the coming years as wind guage was in the days when sailing ships
controlled empires.  The nation that controls the Moon will control the Earth
-- but no one seems willing these days to speak that nasty fact aloud.

d) Since 1950 we have done so in several thaetres and are doing so as this
is written, in Vietnam.  "Preventive" or "pre-emptive" war seems as unlikely
as ever, no matter who is in the White House.  Here is a new prediction: World
War III (as a major all out war) will not take place at least until 1980 and
could easily hold off until 2000.  This is a very happy prediction compared
with the situation in 1950, as those years of grace may turn up basic factors
which (hopefully!) might postpone disastre still longer.

<snip>

e) Here I fell flat on my face.  There has been no breakthrough in housing,
nor is any now in prospect -- instead the ancient, wasteful methods of
building are now being confirmed by public subsidies.  The degree of our
backwardness in this field is hard to grasp; we have never seen a modern
house. <snip>  I underestimated (through wishful thinking) the power of human
stupidity -- a fault fatal to prophecy.

f) In the meantime, spectacular progress has been made in organ transplants
-- and the problem of regeneration is related to this one.

<snip>

g) Our editor has suggested that I had been too optimistic on this one -- but
I still stand by it.  It is still thirty-five years to the end of the century.
For perspective, look back thirty-five years to 1930 -- the American Rocket
Society had not yet been founded then.  Another curve, similar to the one
herewith in shape but derived entirely from speed of transportation,
extrapoltaes to show faster-than-light travel by the year 2000.  I guess I'm
chicken, for I am not predicting FTL ships by then, if ever.  But the
prediction of the first ship intended to reach the nearest star will be
abuilding by the end of the first century, still stands.

h) Predicting intelligent life on Mars looks pretty silly after those dismal
photographs.  But I shan't withdraw it until Mars has been *thoroughly*
explored.  As yet we really have no idea -and no data- as to just how
ubiquitous and varied life may be in this galaxy; it is conceivable that life
as we *don't* know it can evolve on *any* sort of planet... and nothing in
our present knowledge of chemistry rules this out.

<snip>

i) I must hedge number thirteen; the "cent" I meant was scaled by the 1950
dollar.  But our currency has been going through a long steady inflation, and
no nation in history has ever gone as far as we have along this route
withoutreaching the explosive phase of infaltion.  Ten-dollar hamburgers? 
Brother, weare headed for th hundred-dollar hamburger -- for the barter-only
hamburger.  

But this is only an inconvenience rather than a disaster as long as there is
plenty of hamburger.

j)  This prediction stands.  But today physics is in a tremendous state of
flux
>with new data piling up faster than it can be digested; it is anybody's guess
>as to where we are headed, but the wilder you guess, the more likely you are
>to hit it lucky .

<snip>

k) I stand flatly behind prediction number fifteen.

l) I'll hedge number eighteen just a little.  Hunger is not now a problem in
the USA and need not be in the year 2000 -- but hunger *is* a world problem
and would at once become an acute problem for us if we were conquered ... a
distinct possibility by 2000.

<snip>

m) I stand by prediction number nineteen.

I see no reason to change any of the negative predictions which follow the
numbered affirmative ones.  They are all concievably possible; they are all
wildly unlikely by year 2000.

Pretty interesting stuff, Misti.  Interesting that the focus was still on
brute force technology like rockets, etc., when the current source of major
societal changes (Ok, so they're not here yet :) ) is turning out to be
pervasive communications (phones, pagers, modems, cell phones) and also the
use of computers to finesse various things into a much higher effiency.

He did a lot better on the negative predictions that the positive ones.

Nifty...looking at the list and talking to my fiance about it, we decided 
that if you count ones he got half right or that appear to be likely in the
near future, he got about half the numbered ones right.

My fiance then pulled out his copy of the book the essay appeared in. It
had more of Heinlein's thoughts looking back from 1980. I didn't have time
to read it carefully right then, but I plan to...and I'm willing to post a
synopsis if people want.

On  a more general Heinlein level: Of what I've read, the only one I would not
give an enthusiastic thumbs-up to is _I Will Fear No Evil_. It did an okay
job of exploring the issue of what constitutes identity (It's about the first
successful brain transplant) but spent too much time delving into who's
sleeping with whom and what number of people were involved and what combination
of genders was represented for my taste.

Cathy,  _I_Will_Fear_No_Evil_ had the unfortunate effect in the 70's of
convincing a number of young men that they understood what it was to live in
a female body.  Sadly, it's an old man's fantasy about what it would be like
for an old man to live in the young woman's body.  It did exploe some
interesting themes, such as the meaning of identity, but it was clearly
written in Heinlein's later period when he had lost touch with much of what
made him great.  

Nonetheless, it was one of my favorites for years.

You say you have a book written in the 80's that revisits his predictions?
What's it called?  (I got these pasages from a book published in the 60's)

_The Expanded Universe_, published in 1979. Keep forgetting to bring
it with me.

Oh wow, Misti, I have been reading a lot of Heinlein lately too.  I think he
is the best writer of adventures I have read.  I'm glad to hear women like
him too; some of his stuff sounds rather sexist by today's standards, but
that's because it was written in the 50s for Boy's Life Magazine.  Those
are the stories I like best, frankly; with the exception of
_Job: A Comedy of Justice_, most of his later stuff (like _The Number of the
Beast_, a wretched book) leaves me cold.
   I have a friend who says he got most of his libetarian views from Heinlein.
Personally, what I get from him is the sense of the individual: it's
individuals that make things happen in his books, not social movements and
certainly not governments.  His heros stand up and do their jobs, and they
show great heroism.  Really, he has only two characters:  The old one and the
young one who thinks the old one is stupid only to gain respect later.  Jubal
Harshaw in _Stranger in a Strange Land_ is probably the most memorable
instance of the old character, but he appears in nearly every book.
   One of the best things about Heinlein is that he wrote so much - I've read
maybe 15 novels, but I keep finding new, good ones.  What are your favorites,
everybody?

Although I love some of his later works, even _I_Shall_Fear_No_Evil_, which
is purported to be one of his worst <grin>, I find that what I really *love*
is his juveniles.  Life is so straightforward and optimistic in his juvenile
world.  

Top Heinlein, for me?

Have Spacesuit, Will Travel
Farmer in the Sky
Starship Troopers (took me 10 years to finish it, but when I did, I liked it.)
Rolling Stones

Yeah, OK, his view on women is warped ... but then in a sense it adds to the
"period" feel of the novels.

I'm with you, Misti - I like the juveniles best.  I'd have to pick Red Planet
as my favorite, followed by Have Spacesuit, Will Travel.  The Rolling Stones
is up there too.  Just read Citizen of the Galaxy a few months ago, and liked
that a lot.  Oh, The Star Beast was kinda cute, too.  (There are so many good
ones!)

Interestingly, in quite a few of the optimistic books I have noticed an
undertone of coming darkness.  In Farmer in the Sky, for instance, a
character expounds on why there will *have* to be a bloody war sometime in the
next 50 years or so.  The same sort of thing is implied in Space Patrol
(another of my favorites.  It occurred to me while I was reading it that if
I ever teach a science fiction class (probability very small), a great double
feature would be to read Space Patrol followed by Orson Scott Card's
Ender's Game.  Both are about kids joining the military, but they have
radically different views on the subject.  Same thing with Starship Troopers
and Joe Haldeman's Forever War.)

I get the feeling Heinlein thought that as populations increase and everything
gets more crowded, the best thing to do is to have a fronteir.  But he didn't
think colonies in space would solve the problem, because you can't move people 
to them quickly enough.  He did, however, think that colonies would allow the
human race to survive despite a war on Earth.

Is it just me, or did anyone else think the movie "Dave" was a blatant ripoff
of Heinlein's Double Star?

I need to read "Have Spacesuit Will Travel" again.  I probably read it
30 times as a kid.  It's one of my oldest books.  Though I think I read
"Tunnnel in the Sky" even more often.

I was unaware that there was a movie version of any Heinlein work save for
_The Puppet Masters_. (_The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress_ would make a decent
miniseries.)

Heinlein worked on the script of at least one movie, I know; unfortunately I
can't remember the name.  Hmmm, where did I see that.

I also happen to be the proud posessor of a copy of the Starship Troopers
pencil-and-paper "bookcase game", from Avalon Hill.  I have yet to play it,
though.

I really do think "Dave" was a ripoff, and I haven't seen Heinlein credited
for it anywhere.  I bet if he was a live he'd sue their butts.  :)

One of the early MST3K movies was written by Heinlein.  I'll see
if I can find the name.

Heinlein worked on the script, and together with Chesley Bonestell, was
technical consultant for the 1950 production of George Pal's
_Destination Moon_. 

That's it, I think.  And it was in the list of MST movies that I read about
it.

        If it was writtin by Heinlein did it really deserve the MST3K
        treatment?

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(This wasn't exactly The Moon is a Harsh Mistress...)

Someone told me that they made a TV miniseries (in Britain or Canada, I don't
remember which) out of Red Planet.  I'd love to see that someday.

From what I heard about Destination Moon, yeah, it deserved the treatment.
They had a rather insipid 5 part minisieries on US TV (animated) from Red
Planet.
My faves? _The Moon is a Harsh Mistress_ is definately there, so is The Menace
From Earth and Podykayne and Double Star.  Then mabye some of his other juvies.
Note that Double Star is itself a homage to the Prisoner of Zenda (the sequel
of which is pretty bad), just as the Roling Stones and Trouble with Tribbles
got the idea from the same source.
.s

Sorry to hear the miniseries wasn't great.  What was the source that The
Rolling Stones & Trouble with Tribbles got their idea from?  (Not to imply
that there was only one plot in The Rolling Stones; the episode with the
flat cats is one of many.)

Agreed that "the idea" refered to the idea shared between them, not the only
idea in The Rolling Stones. 
        Don't remember the source for the "fuzzballs that breed schtick;" think
it's in Expanded Universe, though.

I just read "Waldo" and "Magic, Inc."  Very old Heinlein; the copyrights in
the front ranged from 1940 to 1950.  Not as good as some of his other stuff,
I think, but not bad.  He's still the only writer that's been able to make
politics sound even remotely interesting to me.

Make what?  Waldo and magic Inc were nice; they were some of the first Heinlien
I  read.

(I'm sorry mneme, I don't understand the question.)

Have spacesuit, will travel.  Great book
Waldo and magic inc.
Podkayne of Mars
Starship Troopers.

All were my introduction to SF

aruba: for some reason, the first tim e I read #24, the line starting with
politics iddn't appear:( But his stuff isn't pure politics; more political
philosopy.

Right, I agree.  But mostly when I hear about politics in real life, I am just
disgusted and bored.  But when Heinlein talks about it (I guess Double Star
is the best example, although characters play politics in Moon is a Harsh
Mistress and Stranger in a Strange Land, too), it sounds really exciting.
Double Star almost made me wish we had a figure like that main character in
our political system today.

I think Heinlein would have liked Ross Perot.  :)

I read "The Door into Summer" recently.  A pretty good time-travel book, I
thought, if a bit predictable.  Not a source of feminism, though.

I really like reading Heinlein when the world seems to be crumbling around me,
and people are acting in ways I can't understand.  Heinlein knows *exactly*
how people will act (because he writes them), and he manipulates them out
the wazoo.  It's delightful to see his heros cut through all the bullshit
of life and get their way in the end.

What do you think of Heinlein's Future History series? The paperback omnibus
edition that collected several stories annovels introduced me to SF
stories.
I particularly enjoyed _Methuselah's_Children_ despite the fact that the
longer lifed people went to another star system with a magic box. Just
press the button and you're there.

Speaking of magic devices, has anyone read _Sixth_Column_, the novel where
some white guys fight off Asian invaders with a magic stick? Are magic
devices a trend in his SF?

I'm working my way through all of Heinlein's works, and I finally got to
Sixth Column, so I can answer the above post.  I thought it was pretty bad.
I was rather surprised at all the racial slurs Heinlein throws around; in a
number of other books he very deliberately makes the point that racism is
stupid.  But Sixth Column was written in 1941, and I guess tensions were
high...

I can't think of many "magic devices" other than the two you mention, Mike.
I mean, there's lots of times when people encounter forces they don't
understand, but not too many times when they pull a rabbit out of their - uh -
shorts and win by virtue of it.  Often Heinlein's stories are about how
humans can use their wits to out smart other humans; about how one can use
one's mind to overcome obstacles.  (And often his villians act really
stupidly, which is always a disappointment.)

What would everyone suggest as a good next book of Heinlein's for someone
who's read Starship Troopers and Stranger In A Strange Land? I loved them
both, but can't decide what to read next. I tried just a random one I picked
up at the library (green hills of earth) and couldn't get into it.. 

Generally the older ones are better than the most recent ones.

"The Puppet Masters" is pretty good.

"Starship Troopers" and "Stranger in a Strange Land" are two of 
Heinlein's four novels which won the Hugo Award.  The other two were 
"Double Star" and "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress".

"Starship Troopers" was published in 1958, I believe, and "Stranger in a 
Strange Land" was published in 1961.  Other books published around the 
same time were "The Door Into Summer", "Have Space Suit -- Will Travel", 
"Farnham's Freehold" (one of Heinlein's most forgettable books in my 
opinion), and "Glory Road".

The two you mentioned feature Heinlein in his most didactic voice.  
(Those who criticize them say he sounds like a preacher.)  He preaches a 
lot in "Farnham's Freehold", "Citizen of the Galaxy" (one of my 
favorites), and "Time Enough For Love", and in many of his other books, 
too.

"Starship Troopers" was the last book he wrote intended as part of his 
series of juvenile novels.  Other Heinlein juvenile novels include 
"Rocket Ship Galileo", "Between Planets", "The Red Planet" (which has 
the same Martians as "Stranger in a Strange Land"), "Have Space Suit -- 
Will Travel", "The Star Beast", "Podkayne of Mars", and "Citizen of the 
Galaxy".  

If you can find a copy, Alexei Panshin's "Rite of Passage" is written in 
the same style as Heinlein's juvvies, and is fully as good as *any* of 
them.  (That there is high praise from me, as Heinlein was 
unquestionably my favorite science fiction writer.)

"The Green Hills of Earth" is a collection of short stories, part of 
Heinlein's "Future History".  Most of the collection of short stories is 
available as "The Past Through Tomorrow", and he has some novels set in 
the Future History as well.  I'd go back and try again.  Some of those 
stories are brilliant, outstanding, and extremely influential among 
science fiction writers.

That ought to get you started.

"green hills of earth" was the other one I've tried. I could get into it...
But I'll try some of those you suggested. Thanks.

"Moon is a Harsh Mistress" is definately where you should go next.  "The
Puppet Masters" is also a good choice.

"I Will Fear No Evil" and "Time Enough for Love" represent the start of
his escape from editors and his descent into self-indulgence, but still
have some redeeming virtues.

Heinlein's book "Stranger in a Strange Land" was the first one of his 
which was released "in unabridged form" by his widow after he died.  She 
touted it as 50% longer, and containing a treasure trove of great 
additional story parts.  I'd agree it's 50% longer... I cite it to 
people as an example of just how much an editor can do for a writer, 
even a terrific writer like Heinlein.  Read the original published 
version, not the uncut version.

Re #37: (If I can RE a post that is 2.5 years old) I honestly couldn't find
anything at all worthwhile in "I Will Fear No Evil".  It just went on and on
and on, and nothing happened.

Re (jep) - how do you know the Martians in Red Planet are the same as the
ones in Stranger in a Strange Land?  There's an oblique reference to a
Martian insurrection of some sort in "The Rolling Stones", so I figured that
that book and Red Planet were in the same universe.  But the grandmother
character in The Rolling Stones also appears in THe Moon is a Harsh
Mistress, so by that logic, THe Moon is a Harsh Mistress and Stranger in a
Strange Land would be in the same universe.  Not sure if that makes sense.

- Backtalk version 1.3.30 - Copyright 1996-2006, Jan Wolter and Steve Weiss