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A recent short article in Business Week (10/3/94 Economic Trends section) warned that soaring oil imports could seriously hurt the US economy. Elsewhere on Environment I've stated that oil imports account for 40% of the trade deficit. Now it's worse. 55% of the oil we use in the US is now imported. We now import 10 million BARRELS per day. 1994 energy trade deficit is estimated to be $65 billion, $15 billion more than last year's. The author feels this is part of the reason for the weakness of the dollar at present. He says that the greater danger is that the foreign oil producers may try to "test America's vulnerability to their pricing behavior." I assume this would be after our dependance grows a little greater, but we're so dependant on foreign oil that they could probably run the prices up now. At the risk of repeating myself, the harm to the economy is much greater. 40-45%, whatever it is now is a huge chunk. The trade deficit means to us as a nation that we are going deeper and deeper in debt, spending money we don't own. Also, the US and Europe no longer have a monopoly on industrialiation. We have to lower our cost of living to be competative in the world economy. Going from 3 car families to 1 car and using public transportation would help. Also more compact and less detatched housing, coincidentally creates the density more amenable to public transportation and stores within walking distance.
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I realized a few days ago that I'm now probably coming close to averaging 150 miles or driving per week, and I really can't figure out how to cut down on that. What's worse is that a lot of that is done with bikes on the roof, meaningdon't get as good gas milage. 80 miles of it is my weekly trip to Detroit, where I teach a class in a middle school, and another 40-80 miles of that is getting out to places where it's legal to mountain bike, since mountain biking has been banned in all the good riding areas near Ann Arbor for "environmental reasons".
I can't predict when the energy crunch will come to the USA, but it is inevitable. After the OPEC dust-up in 1980+, we seem to have managed to set it up so that we are not seriously bothered by the problem - for the time being. But the political threat still exists, and the resource depletion threat is inevitable - eventually. Like practically everyone else, I've pretty much put these out of my mind, and since there is not much pressure for energy conservation, we are living in the proverbial fools' paradise.
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