response 283 of 378:

Mar 10 16:24 UTC 2006

I managed to view Rane's URL with links (needed javascript).
I think it is saying that if you weight 65-75% of average weight you are 5%
more likely to die within a given period.  If you weigh 75-95% of average you
are 93% as likely to die, implying that average people weigh more than is
health for them (in this group of people anyway, in the US).  If you weight
145-155% of average (50% above average, average being somewhat heavier than
is health) you are 211% as likely to die (about twice as many people will die
if they should have weighed 150 lb to be average and they weight 225 lb, or
75 lb overweight).  If you should have weighed 150 lb but weigh 155-165% of
that, call it 160%, and therefore weigh 240 instead (90 lb overweight), you
are more than twice as likely to die as someone average.  This was for men
ages 15-39.  This was if they kept track of people for only 5 years.

If they followed them up for 15-22 years, people who were 10% or so above the
average weight, and had 10% higher chance of dying within 5 years, had 69%
higher chance of dying within 15-22 years, meaning that if the average weight
for you is 150 lbs, a healthier weight (80%) would be 120 lb (that is probably
me at 5'5"), and if I weighed 10% extra (165 lb) I would be 69% more likely
to die than someone who weighed 150 lb, within 15-20 years, and somewhat less
likely if I weighed 120 lb (and were a man currently aged 15-29, of course).

I think this implies that moderate overweight causes a moderate increase in
chance of dying young (which is low to start with so even doubling does not
make much difference), but as you get into your fifties and sixties, the
cumulative effects of being even 10% above average (which is already
overweight) cause people to die with twice the frequency of people who are
not overweight.  This can be from increased frequency of cancer due to poor
diet (colon cancer, breast cancer), from circulatory problems, diabetes. 
Even if you don't die, you are more likely to have joint problems (knee
replacements, bad back), sleep apnea due to fat interfering with air intake.

I agree with slynne that people should not ridicule someone with a health
problem, and that it is sometimes genetic/metabolic, and losing weight is not
easy, but I don't agree that people should give up trying.  Counting calories
is not the best way of dieting, unless it serves to educate people about which
types of food are high in calories and should mostly be avoided.   A friend
losing weight successfully with the most recent Weight Watchers' diet says
there are categories of food she can eat in unlimited amounts, such as whole
grains (despite having carbohydrates they digest slowly and make you feel
full) as long as she does not eat until it hurts.  Most vegetables and fruits
are okay.  Things made of flour, even whole-wheat, are not, they digest too
quickly.  Liquids should be non-caloric (drink water).  A neighbor is losing
weight because his doctor told him to stop drinking alcohol. 

Overweight people as a category probably get less exercise, which can skew
the statistics.  I agree that fat people who exercise are in some ways
healthier than lazy thin people who don't exercise.  

Quitting smoking has to be much more effective in improving health than any
kind of diet.  Good luck keeping it up, lynne.